SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 1 February 2025

MIA105–103SAS
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAS winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when MIA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Bam Adebayo
Tyler Herro
Duncan Robinson
Terry Rozier
Nikola Jovic

Adebayo · Herro · Robinson · Rozier · Jovic

Closing lineup · SAS

Devin Vassell
Chris Paul
Charles Bassey
Keldon Johnson
Julian Champagnie

Vassell · Paul · Bassey · Johnson · Champagnie

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MIA
Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

38′ · +5

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

36′ · +3

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware

34′ · +2

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

27′ · +1

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

23′ · +1

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier

33′ · +2

Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic

25′ · +3

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

23′ · -5

Pelle Larsson

Pelle Larsson

1′ · -2

SAS
Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

35′ · -1

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

32′ · -4

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

28′ · -3

Charles Bassey

Charles Bassey

27′ · -18

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

23′ · +9

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

26′ · -3

Zach Collins

Zach Collins

8′ · -2

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

19′ · -6

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

17′ · +16

Tre Jones

Tre Jones

14′ · -4

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Sandro Mamukelashvili

10′ · +6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and SAS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Ware played 13.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Rozier, Robinson, Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware played 7.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Ware played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Castle, and Barnes played 11.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Johnson, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bassey, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Jaquez played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Ware played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Jovic, and Jaquez played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Rozier, Herro, Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, Jaquez, and Ware played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jovic played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Larsson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Champagnie played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Paul, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Castle, and Barnes played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Mamukelashvili played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Castle played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Paul, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Sochan played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Collins, Johnson, Champagnie, and Sochan played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Sochan played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Castle played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Collins, Johnson, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bassey, Jones, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Sochan played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Paul, Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.354
100% of capacity
Frost Bank Center · San Antonio
Scoring
208
combined points
19.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

11 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors