Win probability changed during the game. · 1 February 2025
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when MIA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIA
Adebayo · Herro · Robinson · Rozier · Jovic
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Paul · Bassey · Johnson · Champagnie
Bam Adebayo
38′ · +5
Tyler Herro
36′ · +3
Kel'el Ware
34′ · +2
Duncan Robinson
27′ · +1
Haywood Highsmith
23′ · +1
Terry Rozier
33′ · +2
Nikola Jovic
25′ · +3
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
23′ · -5
Pelle Larsson
1′ · -2
Devin Vassell
35′ · -1
Chris Paul
32′ · -4
Harrison Barnes
28′ · -3
Charles Bassey
27′ · -18
Stephon Castle
23′ · +9
Keldon Johnson
26′ · -3
Zach Collins
8′ · -2
Jeremy Sochan
19′ · -6
Julian Champagnie
17′ · +16
Tre Jones
14′ · -4
Sandro Mamukelashvili
10′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Ware played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Robinson, Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Ware played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Castle, and Barnes played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bassey, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Miami Heat
Rozier, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Jaquez played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Ware played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Jovic, and Jaquez played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Rozier, Herro, Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, Jaquez, and Ware played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jovic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Larsson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Champagnie played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Paul, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Castle, and Barnes played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Mamukelashvili played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Castle played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Paul, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Sochan played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Collins, Johnson, Champagnie, and Sochan played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Vassell, and Sochan played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Johnson, Bassey, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Collins, Johnson, Vassell, and Castle played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Collins, Johnson, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bassey, Jones, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Sochan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Paul, Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

