SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 3 February 2025

ATL132–130DET
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 24 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DET winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Dyson Daniels
De'Andre Hunter
Onyeka Okongwu
Keaton Wallace
Vit Krejci

Daniels · Hunter · Okongwu · Wallace · Krejci

Closing lineup · DET

Cade Cunningham
Tobias Harris
Jalen Duren
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Malik Beasley

Cunningham · Harris · Duren · Hardaway · Beasley

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

36′ · -9

Trae Young

Trae Young

35′ · -11

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

31′ · -4

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

28′ · -10

Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher

26′ · +3

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr.

20′ · +12

Keaton Wallace

Keaton Wallace

13′ · +13

Vit Krejci

Vit Krejci

28′ · 0

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

12′ · +11

Dominick Barlow

Dominick Barlow

11′ · +5

DET
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

38′ · +10

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

35′ · +12

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

29′ · +7

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

27′ · +13

Ausar Thompson

Ausar Thompson

25′ · +2

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

24′ · -9

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

19′ · -9

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

16′ · -11

Marcus Sasser

Marcus Sasser

10′ · -12

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

16′ · -13

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and DET.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 11.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.

  • Young, Hunter, Okongwu, Krejci, and Daniels played 7.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Young, Mathews, Krejci, and Barlow played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 17.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 14 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Holland played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hunter, Okongwu, Daniels, Wallace, and Risacher played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Nance, Mathews, Krejci, Wallace, and Barlow played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Hunter, Krejci, Daniels, and Wallace played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Nance, Young, Hunter, Mathews, and Risacher played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Nance, Krejci, Daniels, Wallace, and Barlow played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Nance, Hunter, Daniels, Wallace, and Risacher played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Nance, Young, Hunter, Daniels, and Risacher played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, Thompson, and Holland played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Duren, Sasser, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Holland, and Harris played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Harris played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.988
78.6% of capacity
Little Caesars Arena · Detroit
Scoring
262
combined points
34.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors