SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 1 March 2025

SAS130–128MEM
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 69% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MEM winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

De'Aaron Fox
Devin Vassell
Jeremy Sochan
Stephon Castle
Keldon Johnson

Fox · Vassell · Sochan · Castle · Johnson

Closing lineup · MEM

Jaylen Wells
Santi Aldama
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Scotty Pippen Jr.
Zach Edey

Wells · Aldama · Jackson · Pippen · Edey

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

35′ · -2

Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

33′ · -21

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

20′ · -12

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

18′ · -11

Bismack Biyombo

Bismack Biyombo

18′ · +3

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

30′ · -1

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

32′ · +13

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

30′ · +13

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

23′ · +28

MEM
Jaylen Wells

Jaylen Wells

39′ · +6

Santi Aldama

Santi Aldama

37′ · +15

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

35′ · +10

Scotty Pippen Jr.

Scotty Pippen Jr.

28′ · -6

John Konchar

John Konchar

17′ · +9

Zach Edey

Zach Edey

26′ · -5

Luke Kennard

Luke Kennard

24′ · -5

GG Jackson

GG Jackson

10′ · -10

Cam Spencer

Cam Spencer

5′ · -15

Jay Huff

Jay Huff

3′ · -15

Lamar Stevens

Lamar Stevens

16′ · +6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and MEM.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Fox, Vassell, Sochan, and Barnes played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, and Castle played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 10.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Stevens, Aldama, and Wells played 5.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jackson, Aldama, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Fox, Vassell, Biyombo, and Barnes played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Paul, Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Fox, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Kennard, Aldama, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Stevens, Jackson, and Edey played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Stevens, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Konchar, Jackson, and Edey played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Konchar, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jackson, Pippen, Huff, Jackson, and Spencer played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Jackson, Stevens, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Aldama, Pippen, Edey, Spencer, and Wells played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Kennard, Aldama, Jackson, Edey, and Wells played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jackson, Stevens, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.822
94.5% of capacity
FedExForum · Memphis
Scoring
258
combined points
30.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 01:52.7
Zach Edey → Devin Vassell
Edey (MEM) brings his right hand down and makes contact with Vassell's (SAS) left arm, which affects his jump shot attempt.