Win probability changed during the game. · 1 March 2025
It was more exciting than 69% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Fox · Vassell · Sochan · Castle · Johnson
Closing lineup · MEM
Wells · Aldama · Jackson · Pippen · Edey
De'Aaron Fox
35′ · -2
Devin Vassell
33′ · -21
Chris Paul
20′ · -12
Harrison Barnes
18′ · -11
Bismack Biyombo
18′ · +3
Jeremy Sochan
30′ · -1
Stephon Castle
32′ · +13
Keldon Johnson
30′ · +13
Julian Champagnie
23′ · +28
Jaylen Wells
39′ · +6
Santi Aldama
37′ · +15
Jaren Jackson Jr.
35′ · +10
Scotty Pippen Jr.
28′ · -6
John Konchar
17′ · +9
Zach Edey
26′ · -5
Luke Kennard
24′ · -5
GG Jackson
10′ · -10
Cam Spencer
5′ · -15
Jay Huff
3′ · -15
Lamar Stevens
16′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Fox, Vassell, Sochan, and Barnes played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, and Castle played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Stevens, Aldama, and Wells played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Aldama, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Fox, Vassell, Biyombo, and Barnes played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Paul, Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, and Biyombo played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Memphis Grizzlies
Kennard, Aldama, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Stevens, Jackson, and Edey played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Stevens, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Konchar, Jackson, and Edey played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Konchar, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Pippen, Huff, Jackson, and Spencer played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Jackson, Stevens, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Aldama, Pippen, Edey, Spencer, and Wells played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kennard, Aldama, Jackson, Edey, and Wells played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jackson, Stevens, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

