Win probability changed during the game. · 3 March 2025
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Daniels · Okongwu · LeVert · Mann
Closing lineup · MEM
Bane · Kennard · Wells · Edey · Williams
Trae Young
36′ · +5
Dyson Daniels
33′ · +16
Onyeka Okongwu
32′ · +11
Zaccharie Risacher
32′ · -7
Dominick Barlow
13′ · -3
Caris LeVert
32′ · +13
Terance Mann
29′ · -3
Clint Capela
16′ · -9
Garrison Mathews
14′ · -8
Keaton Wallace
3′ · -5
Desmond Bane
36′ · -3
Luke Kennard
35′ · -8
Jaylen Wells
33′ · -1
Zach Edey
27′ · +4
Jaren Jackson Jr.
2′ · -3
GG Jackson
28′ · -2
Vince Williams Jr.
25′ · +5
Brandon Clarke
21′ · -6
Scotty Pippen Jr.
16′ · -4
John Konchar
15′ · +9
Lamar Stevens
3′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Barlow, and Risacher played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
LeVert, Young, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Young, Mann, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Kennard, Bane, Jackson, Edey, and Wells played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Clarke, Bane, Williams, Jackson, and Wells played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kennard, Konchar, Williams, Edey, and Wells played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Mann, Mathews, Risacher, and Capela played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Risacher, and Capela played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Mathews, Okongwu, Daniels, and Barlow played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Mann, Mathews, Wallace, and Capela played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
LeVert, Mann, Okongwu, Daniels, and Risacher played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Young, Daniels, Risacher, and Capela played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Risacher played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Mann, Okongwu, Daniels, and Barlow played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Mann, Daniels, Barlow, and Capela played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
LeVert, Mann, Mathews, Okongwu, and Daniels played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Mathews, and Capela played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Young, Okongwu, Daniels, and Barlow played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Young, Mathews, Risacher, and Capela played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Clarke, Konchar, Bane, Pippen, and Williams played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Jackson, and Wells played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Kennard, Bane, Williams, Edey, and Wells played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Kennard, Konchar, Stevens, Pippen, and Edey played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Clarke, Bane, Pippen, Williams, and Jackson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Pippen, and Jackson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Edey, and Wells played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Konchar, Pippen, Jackson, and Edey played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Williams, and Wells played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Konchar, Pippen, Williams, and Edey played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

