Win probability changed during the game. · 9 March 2025
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAC leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Murray · LaVine · Valanciunas · Ellis · LaRavia
Closing lineup · LAC
Harden · Zubac · Leonard · Jones · Bogdanovic
Keegan Murray
47′ · -7
Zach LaVine
44′ · +5
DeMar DeRozan
44′ · -1
Jonas Valanciunas
42′ · 0
Keon Ellis
31′ · +2
Jake LaRavia
31′ · -3
Trey Lyles
11′ · -1
Markelle Fultz
2′ · +4
Devin Carter
12′ · -4
James Harden
44′ · -5
Ivica Zubac
44′ · +3
Kawhi Leonard
40′ · -3
Nicolas Batum
28′ · +2
Kris Dunn
27′ · +4
Derrick Jones Jr.
28′ · +8
Bogdan Bogdanovic
23′ · -3
Amir Coffey
27′ · -1
Kobe Brown
4′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and LAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 22.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, LaRavia, DeRozan, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Lyles, Murray, LaRavia, Carter, and DeRozan played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
LA Clippers
Dunn, Zubac, Batum, Harden, and Leonard played 18.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Zubac, Jones, Coffey, Harden, and Bogdanovic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Zubac, Jones, Coffey, Harden, and Leonard played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Murray, LaRavia, Carter, DeRozan, and Valanciunas played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Lyles, Fultz, Ellis, LaRavia, and LaVine played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Lyles, Murray, Ellis, LaRavia, and LaVine played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ellis, LaRavia, Carter, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, Ellis, LaRavia, Carter, and LaVine played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
LA Clippers
Zubac, Jones, Coffey, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Coffey, Brown, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Zubac, Coffey, Harden, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Coffey, Batum, Harden, and Bogdanovic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Zubac, Jones, Coffey, Batum, and Harden played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Zubac, Jones, Batum, Harden, and Leonard played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dunn, Zubac, Jones, Batum, and Harden played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Dunn, Zubac, Harden, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Dunn, Zubac, Coffey, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Dunn, Jones, Coffey, Leonard, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Coffey, Brown, Harden, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

