Win probability changed during the game. · 27 March 2025
It was more exciting than 75% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Doncic · Reaves · Finney-Smith · Vincent
Closing lineup · CHI
Giddey · Huerter · White · Vucevic · Williams
LeBron James
39′ · -10
Luka Doncic
38′ · -1
Austin Reaves
37′ · -10
Jaxson Hayes
32′ · -9
Dorian Finney-Smith
30′ · -10
Jarred Vanderbilt
19′ · +9
Jordan Goodwin
18′ · +3
Gabe Vincent
14′ · +13
Dalton Knecht
12′ · +5
Josh Giddey
40′ · +8
Kevin Huerter
40′ · +12
Coby White
38′ · -1
Nikola Vucevic
32′ · +11
Matas Buzelis
25′ · +3
Patrick Williams
29′ · -6
Zach Collins
16′ · -9
Dalen Terry
13′ · -2
Julian Phillips
7′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, and James played 22.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Vanderbilt, Reaves, Goodwin, Knecht, and James played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Finney-Smith, Doncic, Vincent, Hayes, and Goodwin played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Chicago Bulls
Huerter, White, Giddey, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 10.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Huerter, White, Williams, Giddey, and Vucevic played 9.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Huerter, Williams, Giddey, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Vanderbilt, Doncic, Vincent, Goodwin, and Knecht played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Vanderbilt, Doncic, Vincent, Reaves, and James played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, Doncic, Reaves, and Goodwin played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Vanderbilt, Vincent, Hayes, Knecht, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, Goodwin, and James played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hayes, Reaves, Goodwin, Knecht, and James played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, Doncic, Vincent, and James played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, Doncic, Vincent, and Goodwin played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Chicago Bulls
Collins, Huerter, White, Giddey, and Terry played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Collins, White, Williams, Giddey, and Terry played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Collins, White, Williams, Terry, and Phillips played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Huerter, White, Phillips, and Buzelis played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Huerter, White, Terry, and Buzelis played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Huerter, White, Williams, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
White, Williams, Giddey, Phillips, and Vucevic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

