Win probability changed during the game. · 2 April 2025
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Okongwu · Daniels · LeVert · Niang
Closing lineup · DAL
Dinwiddie · Davis · Christie · Martin · Hardy
Trae Young
40′ · -1
Onyeka Okongwu
40′ · +6
Dyson Daniels
33′ · 0
Zaccharie Risacher
25′ · -5
Mouhamed Gueye
14′ · +8
Vit Krejci
16′ · -18
Caris LeVert
24′ · 0
Terance Mann
21′ · +11
Dominick Barlow
8′ · -8
Georges Niang
20′ · -3
Naji Marshall
35′ · -10
Spencer Dinwiddie
33′ · -1
Anthony Davis
30′ · +3
Klay Thompson
29′ · -2
Dereck Lively II
16′ · -2
Max Christie
25′ · +9
Caleb Martin
28′ · +5
Daniel Gafford
20′ · +1
Jaden Hardy
22′ · +5
Kai Jones
2′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Gueye, and Risacher played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Niang, Young, Okongwu, and Daniels played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Dallas Mavericks
Marshall, Lively, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 7.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Gafford, Hardy, Christie, and Davis played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Christie, and Dinwiddie played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
LeVert, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Risacher played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Niang, Young, Krejci, and Barlow played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Niang, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
LeVert, Young, Mann, Barlow, and Gueye played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Niang, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Niang, Young, Okongwu, and Krejci played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Young, Mann, Okongwu, Krejci, and Risacher played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
LeVert, Mann, Krejci, Daniels, and Barlow played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Niang, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
LeVert, Niang, Young, Mann, and Okongwu played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Young, Mann, Okongwu, Gueye, and Risacher played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
LeVert, Niang, Young, Mann, and Barlow played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Marshall, Christie, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, and Christie played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Gafford, Hardy, Christie, and Dinwiddie played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Marshall, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Martin, Hardy, Lively, Thompson, and Davis played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Marshall, Christie, Lively, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Marshall, Jones, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Martin, Marshall, Hardy, Lively, and Thompson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Hardy, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, Marshall, Christie, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

