SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 2 April 2025

ATL118–120DAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Trae Young
Onyeka Okongwu
Dyson Daniels
Caris LeVert
Georges Niang

Young · Okongwu · Daniels · LeVert · Niang

Closing lineup · DAL

Spencer Dinwiddie
Anthony Davis
Max Christie
Caleb Martin
Jaden Hardy

Dinwiddie · Davis · Christie · Martin · Hardy

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Trae Young

Trae Young

40′ · -1

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

40′ · +6

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

33′ · 0

Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher

25′ · -5

Mouhamed Gueye

Mouhamed Gueye

14′ · +8

Vit Krejci

Vit Krejci

16′ · -18

Caris LeVert

Caris LeVert

24′ · 0

Terance Mann

Terance Mann

21′ · +11

Dominick Barlow

Dominick Barlow

8′ · -8

Georges Niang

Georges Niang

20′ · -3

DAL
Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

35′ · -10

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

33′ · -1

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

30′ · +3

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

29′ · -2

Dereck Lively II

Dereck Lively II

16′ · -2

Max Christie

Max Christie

25′ · +9

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin

28′ · +5

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

20′ · +1

Jaden Hardy

Jaden Hardy

22′ · +5

Kai Jones

Kai Jones

2′ · +2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Young, Okongwu, Daniels, Gueye, and Risacher played 10.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • LeVert, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • LeVert, Niang, Young, Okongwu, and Daniels played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Marshall, Lively, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 7.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Martin, Gafford, Hardy, Christie, and Davis played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Christie, and Dinwiddie played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • LeVert, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Young, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Niang, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Risacher played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • LeVert, Niang, Young, Krejci, and Barlow played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Niang, Young, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • LeVert, Young, Mann, Barlow, and Gueye played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Niang, Okongwu, Krejci, Daniels, and Risacher played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • LeVert, Niang, Young, Okongwu, and Krejci played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Young, Mann, Okongwu, Krejci, and Risacher played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • LeVert, Mann, Krejci, Daniels, and Barlow played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • LeVert, Niang, Mann, Okongwu, and Daniels played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • LeVert, Niang, Young, Mann, and Okongwu played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Young, Mann, Okongwu, Gueye, and Risacher played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • LeVert, Niang, Young, Mann, and Barlow played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Marshall, Christie, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, and Christie played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Martin, Gafford, Hardy, Christie, and Dinwiddie played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Martin, Marshall, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Martin, Hardy, Lively, Thompson, and Davis played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Marshall, Christie, Lively, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Marshall, Jones, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Martin, Marshall, Hardy, Lively, and Thompson played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Martin, Hardy, Thompson, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Martin, Marshall, Christie, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.977
104% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Scoring
238
combined points
10.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Traveling · 00:10
Anthony Davis → Hawks
Davis (DAL) moves his foot heel-to-toe to create distance on the perimeter.