Win probability changed during the game. · 3 April 2025
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Jackson · Bane · Morant · Aldama · Pippen
Closing lineup · MIA
Ware · Adebayo · Larsson · Mitchell · Highsmith
Jaren Jackson Jr.
37′ · +5
Desmond Bane
36′ · -1
Ja Morant
32′ · +3
Zach Edey
28′ · +2
Jaylen Wells
26′ · +4
Santi Aldama
30′ · -4
Scotty Pippen Jr.
27′ · 0
Luke Kennard
22′ · 0
Lamar Stevens
2′ · +1
Tyler Herro
37′ · +1
Kel'el Ware
35′ · +1
Bam Adebayo
34′ · -5
Pelle Larsson
23′ · -7
Alec Burks
16′ · 0
Davion Mitchell
37′ · +3
Haywood Highsmith
26′ · -5
Kyle Anderson
20′ · +2
Duncan Robinson
11′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Edey, and Wells played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Edey played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jackson, Morant, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Herro, Larsson, Ware, and Burks played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, and Anderson played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, and Ware played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Morant, Aldama, and Wells played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Morant, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Morant, Bane, and Aldama played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Pippen, and Edey played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Stevens, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Miami Heat
Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Burks played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Anderson played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, and Ware played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, Ware, and Anderson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Burks played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, and Ware played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Herro, Larsson, Ware, and Anderson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

