SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 3 April 2025

MEM110–108MIA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsMEM wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when MEM does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MEM

Jaren Jackson Jr.
Desmond Bane
Ja Morant
Santi Aldama
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Jackson · Bane · Morant · Aldama · Pippen

Closing lineup · MIA

Kel'el Ware
Bam Adebayo
Pelle Larsson
Davion Mitchell
Haywood Highsmith

Ware · Adebayo · Larsson · Mitchell · Highsmith

Q1Q2Q3Q4
MEM
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

37′ · +5

Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

36′ · -1

Ja Morant

Ja Morant

32′ · +3

Zach Edey

Zach Edey

28′ · +2

Jaylen Wells

Jaylen Wells

26′ · +4

Santi Aldama

Santi Aldama

30′ · -4

Scotty Pippen Jr.

Scotty Pippen Jr.

27′ · 0

Luke Kennard

Luke Kennard

22′ · 0

Lamar Stevens

Lamar Stevens

2′ · +1

MIA
Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

37′ · +1

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware

35′ · +1

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

34′ · -5

Pelle Larsson

Pelle Larsson

23′ · -7

Alec Burks

Alec Burks

16′ · 0

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

37′ · +3

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

26′ · -5

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

20′ · +2

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

11′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Jackson, Morant, Bane, Edey, and Wells played 10.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Edey played 7.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jackson, Morant, Pippen, Edey, and Wells played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Herro, Larsson, Ware, and Burks played 10.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, and Anderson played 9.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, and Ware played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Jackson, Morant, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Morant, Aldama, and Wells played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jackson, Morant, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Morant, Bane, and Aldama played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Pippen, and Edey played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Stevens, Bane, Aldama, and Pippen played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Miami Heat

  • Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Burks played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Anderson played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, and Ware played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, Ware, and Anderson played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell, Ware, and Burks played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, Mitchell, and Ware played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Adebayo, Herro, Larsson, Ware, and Anderson played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.700
100.5% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Scoring
218
combined points
9.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

9 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 00:21.7
Scotty Pippen Jr. → Kel'el Ware
Ware (MIA) is the last player to touch the ball before it goes out of bounds and Memphis should have been awarded with possession.