Win probability changed during the game. · 13 December 2024
It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Barnes · Wembanyama · Sochan · Champagnie · Vassell
Closing lineup · POR
Grant · Camara · Simons · Walker · Avdija
Harrison Barnes
34′ · -11
Victor Wembanyama
34′ · +3
Jeremy Sochan
32′ · +15
Julian Champagnie
31′ · +8
Chris Paul
11′ · +7
Blake Wesley
25′ · +19
Devin Vassell
30′ · +6
Charles Bassey
14′ · -1
Malaki Branham
15′ · -21
Sandro Mamukelashvili
13′ · -15
Jerami Grant
38′ · -8
Toumani Camara
38′ · -4
Anfernee Simons
37′ · -3
Shaedon Sharpe
33′ · +6
Jabari Walker
22′ · +13
Scoot Henderson
22′ · -5
Deni Avdija
26′ · -8
Donovan Clingan
15′ · +3
Dalano Banton
8′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Branham, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Champagnie, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 8.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vassell, Champagnie, Wesley, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Simons, Sharpe, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Simons, Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, and Grant played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Henderson, Sharpe, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Wesley, and Sochan played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, and Wesley played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Paul, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Branham, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bassey, Champagnie, Branham, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bassey, Vassell, Branham, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, Wesley, and Sochan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bassey, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Vassell, Champagnie, Branham, Wesley, and Wembanyama played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portland Trail Blazers
Simons, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Grant played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Simons, Avdija, Sharpe, Walker, and Camara played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Avdija, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Simons, Avdija, Banton, Henderson, and Clingan played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Henderson, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Simons, Avdija, Banton, Sharpe, and Walker played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Avdija, Henderson, Clingan, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Simons, Banton, Sharpe, Walker, and Grant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Simons, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

