SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 13 December 2024

SAS118–116POR
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ POR winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

Harrison Barnes
Victor Wembanyama
Jeremy Sochan
Julian Champagnie
Devin Vassell

Barnes · Wembanyama · Sochan · Champagnie · Vassell

Closing lineup · POR

Jerami Grant
Toumani Camara
Anfernee Simons
Jabari Walker
Deni Avdija

Grant · Camara · Simons · Walker · Avdija

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

34′ · -11

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama

34′ · +3

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

32′ · +15

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

31′ · +8

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

11′ · +7

Blake Wesley

Blake Wesley

25′ · +19

Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

30′ · +6

Charles Bassey

Charles Bassey

14′ · -1

Malaki Branham

Malaki Branham

15′ · -21

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Sandro Mamukelashvili

13′ · -15

POR
Jerami Grant

Jerami Grant

38′ · -8

Toumani Camara

Toumani Camara

38′ · -4

Anfernee Simons

Anfernee Simons

37′ · -3

Shaedon Sharpe

Shaedon Sharpe

33′ · +6

Jabari Walker

Jabari Walker

22′ · +13

Scoot Henderson

Scoot Henderson

22′ · -5

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija

26′ · -8

Donovan Clingan

Donovan Clingan

15′ · +3

Dalano Banton

Dalano Banton

8′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and POR.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Branham, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 8.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Champagnie, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 8.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vassell, Champagnie, Wesley, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Simons, Sharpe, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 9.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Simons, Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, and Grant played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Henderson, Sharpe, Walker, Camara, and Grant played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Wesley, and Sochan played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Paul, Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, and Wesley played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Paul, Wesley, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Branham, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bassey, Champagnie, Branham, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bassey, Vassell, Branham, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bassey, Vassell, Champagnie, Wesley, and Sochan played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bassey, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Vassell, Champagnie, Branham, Wesley, and Wembanyama played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Simons, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Grant played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Simons, Avdija, Sharpe, Walker, and Camara played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Avdija, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Simons, Avdija, Banton, Henderson, and Clingan played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Henderson, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Simons, Avdija, Banton, Sharpe, and Walker played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Simons, Avdija, Henderson, Clingan, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Simons, Banton, Sharpe, Walker, and Grant played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Simons, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Simons, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.025
87.7% of capacity
Moda Center · Portland
Scoring
234
combined points
6.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

11 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors