SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 5 June 2025

IND111–110OKC
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 54% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ OKC winsIND wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when OKC leads and falls when IND does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · IND

Pascal Siakam
Andrew Nembhard
Aaron Nesmith
Myles Turner
Obi Toppin

Siakam · Nembhard · Nesmith · Turner · Toppin

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jalen Williams
Cason Wallace
Chet Holmgren
Alex Caruso

Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Wallace · Holmgren · Caruso

Q1Q2Q3Q4
IND
Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

39′ · +12

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

35′ · -10

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

32′ · +11

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

31′ · +13

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

28′ · +8

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

25′ · +13

Ben Sheppard

Ben Sheppard

9′ · -12

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

17′ · -13

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

16′ · -8

Thomas Bryant

Thomas Bryant

8′ · -9

OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

40′ · +3

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

36′ · -4

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

36′ · -3

Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace

33′ · -13

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

24′ · +4

Alex Caruso

Alex Caruso

28′ · +2

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein

17′ · +2

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

11′ · +3

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

9′ · +6

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

1′ · -2

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell

4′ · -3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and OKC.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 13.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 6.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 14 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and McConnell played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 16.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, and Wallace played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Caruso, Hartenstein, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Joe played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Indiana Pacers

  • Siakam, Bryant, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Sheppard played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Bryant, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Bryant, Nembhard, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bryant, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Turner, Siakam, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Caruso, Hartenstein, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, and Williams played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Caruso, Hartenstein, Wiggins, Williams, and Mitchell played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Wallace played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Caruso, Hartenstein, Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, and Wiggins played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Caruso, Hartenstein, Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, and Wallace played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.203
100% of capacity
Paycom Center · Oklahoma City
Series
Game 1
NBA Finals
OKC 4-3
Scoring
221
combined points
3.5 above the season average (217.5)