SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 6 May 2025

IND120–119CLE
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 60% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CLE winsIND wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CLE leads and falls when IND does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · IND

Andrew Nembhard
Tyrese Haliburton
Myles Turner
Aaron Nesmith
Pascal Siakam

Nembhard · Haliburton · Turner · Nesmith · Siakam

Closing lineup · CLE

Max Strus
Jarrett Allen
Donovan Mitchell
Ty Jerome
Sam Merrill

Strus · Allen · Mitchell · Jerome · Merrill

Q1Q2Q3Q4
IND
Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

36′ · +10

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

36′ · +11

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

35′ · +15

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

33′ · -2

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

30′ · +1

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

20′ · +8

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

16′ · -2

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

14′ · -15

Ben Sheppard

Ben Sheppard

6′ · -4

Thomas Bryant

Thomas Bryant

11′ · -9

Jarace Walker

Jarace Walker

3′ · -8

CLE
Max Strus

Max Strus

39′ · -14

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen

38′ · -5

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

36′ · +13

Dean Wade

Dean Wade

30′ · +5

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

28′ · -5

Isaac Okoro

Isaac Okoro

29′ · +1

Sam Merrill

Sam Merrill

26′ · 0

Javonte Green

Javonte Green

10′ · +4

Craig Porter Jr.

Craig Porter Jr.

4′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and CLE.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 19.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Bryant, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Jerome, and Wade played 11.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Allen, Strus, Jerome, Okoro, and Merrill played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Mitchell, Wade, Green, Okoro, and Merrill played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 15 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Walker, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Wade, and Okoro played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Okoro, and Merrill played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Jerome, and Okoro played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mitchell, Allen, Wade, Okoro, and Merrill played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mitchell, Strus, Wade, Green, and Merrill played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Strus, Jerome, Wade, Green, and Merrill played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Allen, Strus, Jerome, Okoro, and Porter played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Allen, Strus, Jerome, Merrill, and Porter played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.432
100% of capacity
Rocket Arena · Cleveland
Series
Game 2
Conference semifinals
IND 4-1
Scoring
239
combined points
21.5 above the season average (217.5)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

20 calls reviewed3 errors admitted by the NBA
Violation: Double Lane · 00:12.4
Cavaliers → Pacers
Multiple players enter the lane and cross the three-point line before the ball is released for the free throw, and the shooter steps over the plane of the free throw line before the ball touches the rim. The call should have been made and a jump ball held at midcourt.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:15.0
Donovan Mitchell → Pacers
Mitchell (CLE) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without actively guarding an opponent.
Violation: Double Lane · 00:48.0
Pacers → Cavaliers
Multiple players enter the lane and cross the three-point line before the ball is released for the free throw. The basket should have been nullified and a jump ball held at midcourt.