Win probability changed during the game. · 6 May 2025
It was more exciting than 60% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CLE leads and falls when IND does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · IND
Nembhard · Haliburton · Turner · Nesmith · Siakam
Closing lineup · CLE
Strus · Allen · Mitchell · Jerome · Merrill
Andrew Nembhard
36′ · +10
Tyrese Haliburton
36′ · +11
Myles Turner
35′ · +15
Aaron Nesmith
33′ · -2
Pascal Siakam
30′ · +1
Bennedict Mathurin
20′ · +8
Obi Toppin
16′ · -2
T.J. McConnell
14′ · -15
Ben Sheppard
6′ · -4
Thomas Bryant
11′ · -9
Jarace Walker
3′ · -8
Max Strus
39′ · -14
Jarrett Allen
38′ · -5
Donovan Mitchell
36′ · +13
Dean Wade
30′ · +5
Ty Jerome
28′ · -5
Isaac Okoro
29′ · +1
Sam Merrill
26′ · 0
Javonte Green
10′ · +4
Craig Porter Jr.
4′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and CLE.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 19.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Bryant, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Jerome, and Wade played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Allen, Strus, Jerome, Okoro, and Merrill played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mitchell, Wade, Green, Okoro, and Merrill played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Walker, and McConnell played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Wade, and Okoro played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Okoro, and Merrill played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Jerome, and Okoro played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Wade, Okoro, and Merrill played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Strus, Wade, Green, and Merrill played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Strus, Jerome, Wade, Green, and Merrill played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Allen, Strus, Jerome, Okoro, and Porter played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Strus, Jerome, Merrill, and Porter played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

