Win probability changed during the game. · 31 October 2025
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Murray · Gordon · Johnson · Hardaway
Closing lineup · POR
Avdija · Holiday · Camara · Sharpe · Grant
Nikola Jokic
37′ · +9
Jamal Murray
34′ · -15
Aaron Gordon
32′ · +4
Cameron Johnson
31′ · +14
Christian Braun
30′ · -1
Tim Hardaway Jr.
22′ · +2
Peyton Watson
23′ · -8
Bruce Brown
20′ · -4
Jonas Valanciunas
11′ · -11
Deni Avdija
33′ · +17
Jrue Holiday
32′ · +4
Toumani Camara
30′ · -2
Donovan Clingan
24′ · -4
Shaedon Sharpe
24′ · +9
Jerami Grant
32′ · -4
Robert Williams III
11′ · -6
Blake Wesley
10′ · -4
Kris Murray
29′ · +5
Rayan Rupert
6′ · -9
Duop Reath
7′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 20.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 8.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Brown, Johnson, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Murray, Camara, Holiday, and Grant played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Holiday, and Grant played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Johnson, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Watson, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Braun, Watson, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Watson, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Watson, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Reath, and Clingan played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Wesley, Murray, Camara, and Grant played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Murray, Camara, Holiday, and Grant played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sharpe, Wesley, Camara, Reath, and Grant played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Murray, Rupert, Holiday, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sharpe, Murray, Rupert, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Murray, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Wesley, Murray, Clingan, and Grant played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Rupert, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Holiday, and Grant played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Camara, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Avdija, Wesley, Camara, and Grant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
