Win probability changed during the game. · 29 October 2025
It was more exciting than 60% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
Reaves · LaRavia · Hachimura · Ayton · Knecht
Closing lineup · MIN
McDaniels · Gobert · Randle · DiVincenzo · Conley
Austin Reaves
40′ · -1
Jake LaRavia
37′ · +3
Rui Hachimura
37′ · -7
Deandre Ayton
35′ · 0
Jarred Vanderbilt
26′ · +4
Dalton Knecht
36′ · -1
Bronny James
5′ · +5
Jaxson Hayes
13′ · +1
Nick Smith Jr.
10′ · +1
Jaden McDaniels
41′ · +10
Rudy Gobert
38′ · +7
Julius Randle
36′ · -1
Donte DiVincenzo
34′ · +7
Mike Conley
28′ · +2
Naz Reid
22′ · -8
Rob Dillingham
16′ · -7
Terrence Shannon Jr.
16′ · -14
Bones Hyland
8′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, LaRavia, and Knecht played 17.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Vanderbilt, Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, and LaRavia played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, and Knecht played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 22.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, McDaniels, Dillingham, and Gobert played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Reid, Hyland, Shannon, Dillingham, and Randle played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Hachimura, LaRavia, Smith, and Knecht played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vanderbilt, Hayes, Smith, Knecht, and James played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Vanderbilt, Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, and Knecht played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Vanderbilt, Hayes, LaRavia, Smith, and Knecht played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, LaRavia, and Smith played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Vanderbilt, Hayes, Reaves, Knecht, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Vanderbilt, Ayton, Reaves, Knecht, and James played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Shannon, and Gobert played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, McDaniels, Dillingham, and Randle played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
McDaniels, Shannon, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Reid, McDaniels, Shannon, Conley, and Randle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Reid, McDaniels, Shannon, Dillingham, and Gobert played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Reid, Hyland, Shannon, Dillingham, and Gobert played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Shannon, Dillingham, and Randle played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
