Win probability changed during the game. · 9 November 2025
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 35 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
White · Brown · Pritchard · Garza · Walsh
Closing lineup · ORL
Wagner · Bane · Banchero · Carter · Suggs
Derrick White
36′ · -4
Jaylen Brown
34′ · -15
Payton Pritchard
33′ · +2
Neemias Queta
26′ · 0
Josh Minott
16′ · -17
Anfernee Simons
23′ · +9
Luka Garza
17′ · +9
Sam Hauser
17′ · +6
Jordan Walsh
26′ · +13
Hugo Gonzalez
13′ · +19
Franz Wagner
37′ · +4
Desmond Bane
35′ · +11
Paolo Banchero
35′ · +7
Wendell Carter Jr.
32′ · -3
Jalen Suggs
29′ · +21
Tristan da Silva
23′ · -2
Anthony Black
20′ · -25
Goga Bitadze
15′ · -6
Jonathan Isaac
4′ · -13
Tyus Jones
10′ · -14
Noah Penda
0′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Minott played 10.7 minutes together.
Brown, Simons, Garza, Hauser, and Walsh played 4.6 minutes together.
Brown, White, Simons, Garza, and Hauser played 4.4 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Boston Celtics lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Suggs, and Banchero played 17.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Bitadze, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Simons, Queta, Pritchard, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 4.1 minutes together.
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 3.7 minutes together.
White, Queta, Pritchard, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 3.6 minutes together.
White, Pritchard, Garza, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 3.4 minutes together.
Brown, White, Pritchard, Garza, and Walsh played 2.8 minutes together.
Brown, White, Simons, Queta, and Walsh played 1.5 minutes together.
Brown, White, Simons, Queta, and Hauser played 1.5 minutes together.
Simons, Pritchard, Minott, Walsh, and Gonzalez played 1.4 minutes together.
Brown, White, Simons, Pritchard, and Minott played 1.4 minutes together.
White, Simons, Garza, Hauser, and Walsh played 1.3 minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Jones, Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, and da Silva played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and da Silva played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bitadze, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Isaac, Carter, Wagner, and Black played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Carter, Wagner, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and Black played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bane, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Isaac, Carter, Wagner, Suggs, and Black played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

