SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 10 November 2025

CLE138–140MIA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsCLE wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when CLE does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CLE

Donovan Mitchell
Evan Mobley
De'Andre Hunter
Sam Merrill
Dean Wade

Mitchell · Mobley · Hunter · Merrill · Wade

Closing lineup · MIA

Norman Powell
Davion Mitchell
Andrew Wiggins
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Nikola Jovic

Powell · Mitchell · Wiggins · Jaquez · Jovic

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
CLE
Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

41′ · +14

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley

39′ · 0

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter

35′ · -7

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen

21′ · +8

Darius Garland

Darius Garland

19′ · -5

Sam Merrill

Sam Merrill

33′ · -7

Jaylon Tyson

Jaylon Tyson

31′ · -5

Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball

20′ · +4

Dean Wade

Dean Wade

22′ · -8

Craig Porter Jr.

Craig Porter Jr.

5′ · -4

MIA
Norman Powell

Norman Powell

39′ · +17

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

38′ · +10

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins

37′ · 0

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware

34′ · +6

Pelle Larsson

Pelle Larsson

26′ · -6

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

33′ · -2

Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic

26′ · +8

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

16′ · -15

Dru Smith

Dru Smith

15′ · -10

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Allen, Hunter, Garland, and Mobley played 9.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • Mitchell, Hunter, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ball, Mitchell, Allen, Merrill, and Tyson played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Miami Heat

  • Powell, Mitchell, Larsson, Ware, and Wiggins played 13.5 minutes together.

  • Smith, Jovic, Jaquez, Fontecchio, and Wiggins played 12.4 minutes together.

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jaquez, Ware, and Wiggins played 10.0 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Mobley, and Porter played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hunter, Garland, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Ball, Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, and Tyson played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Ball, Allen, Hunter, Garland, and Wade played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mitchell, Hunter, Garland, Mobley, and Tyson played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Mitchell, Hunter, Wade, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ball, Hunter, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Mitchell, Hunter, Wade, Merrill, and Mobley played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Ball, Mitchell, Hunter, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Ball, Hunter, Wade, Merrill, and Mobley played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Ball, Hunter, Wade, Mobley, and Porter played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Miami Heat

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Larsson, and Ware played 5.1 minutes together.

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jaquez, Larsson, and Ware played 3.1 minutes together.

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Jaquez, and Larsson played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Jaquez, and Fontecchio played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Smith, Jovic, Jaquez, Fontecchio, and Larsson played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Ware, and Wiggins played 1.1 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.600
100% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Scoring
278
combined points
46.8 above the season average (231.2)