Win probability changed during the game. · 10 November 2025
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Mitchell · Mobley · Hunter · Merrill · Wade
Closing lineup · MIA
Powell · Mitchell · Wiggins · Jaquez · Jovic
Donovan Mitchell
41′ · +14
Evan Mobley
39′ · 0
De'Andre Hunter
35′ · -7
Jarrett Allen
21′ · +8
Darius Garland
19′ · -5
Sam Merrill
33′ · -7
Jaylon Tyson
31′ · -5
Lonzo Ball
20′ · +4
Dean Wade
22′ · -8
Craig Porter Jr.
5′ · -4
Norman Powell
39′ · +17
Davion Mitchell
38′ · +10
Andrew Wiggins
37′ · 0
Kel'el Ware
34′ · +6
Pelle Larsson
26′ · -6
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
33′ · -2
Nikola Jovic
26′ · +8
Simone Fontecchio
16′ · -15
Dru Smith
15′ · -10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Hunter, Garland, and Mobley played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Mitchell, Hunter, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ball, Mitchell, Allen, Merrill, and Tyson played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Miami Heat
Powell, Mitchell, Larsson, Ware, and Wiggins played 13.5 minutes together.
Smith, Jovic, Jaquez, Fontecchio, and Wiggins played 12.4 minutes together.
Powell, Mitchell, Jaquez, Ware, and Wiggins played 10.0 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, Mobley, and Porter played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hunter, Garland, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Ball, Mitchell, Wade, Merrill, and Tyson played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ball, Allen, Hunter, Garland, and Wade played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Hunter, Garland, Mobley, and Tyson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Mitchell, Hunter, Wade, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Ball, Hunter, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mitchell, Hunter, Wade, Merrill, and Mobley played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Ball, Mitchell, Hunter, Mobley, and Tyson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ball, Hunter, Wade, Merrill, and Mobley played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ball, Hunter, Wade, Mobley, and Porter played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Miami Heat
Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Larsson, and Ware played 5.1 minutes together.
Powell, Mitchell, Jaquez, Larsson, and Ware played 3.1 minutes together.
Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Jaquez, and Larsson played 1.9 minutes together.
Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Jaquez, and Fontecchio played 1.8 minutes together.
Smith, Jovic, Jaquez, Fontecchio, and Larsson played 1.5 minutes together.
Powell, Mitchell, Jovic, Ware, and Wiggins played 1.1 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

