Win probability changed during the game. · 29 November 2025
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
Dosunmu · Giddey · Buzelis · Vucevic · Jones
Closing lineup · IND
Mathurin · Siakam · Nembhard · Huff · McConnell
Ayo Dosunmu
35′ · -1
Josh Giddey
34′ · +7
Matas Buzelis
34′ · -12
Kevin Huerter
32′ · -8
Nikola Vucevic
30′ · -7
Tre Jones
29′ · +6
Patrick Williams
17′ · -6
Jevon Carter
11′ · -13
Lachlan Olbrich
11′ · +15
Emanuel Miller
7′ · +8
Bennedict Mathurin
38′ · +3
Pascal Siakam
36′ · +22
Andrew Nembhard
32′ · -12
Jay Huff
25′ · +2
Ben Sheppard
22′ · -3
Isaiah Jackson
23′ · 0
Jarace Walker
20′ · -5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
11′ · -18
T.J. McConnell
25′ · +20
Garrison Mathews
8′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Huerter, Dosunmu, Giddey, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 12.1 minutes together.
Huerter, Jones, Dosunmu, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 6.5 minutes together.
Huerter, Dosunmu, Giddey, Buzelis, and Olbrich played 2.7 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Chicago Bulls lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 13.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Robinson-Earl, Jackson, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Mathurin, and McConnell played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Jones, Dosunmu, Giddey, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 2.6 minutes together.
Carter, Williams, Jones, Giddey, and Buzelis played 2.6 minutes together.
Huerter, Williams, Jones, Giddey, and Vucevic played 2.5 minutes together.
Carter, Huerter, Williams, Dosunmu, and Buzelis played 2.4 minutes together.
Carter, Williams, Jones, Giddey, and Vucevic played 2.3 minutes together.
Carter, Huerter, Williams, Jones, and Olbrich played 2.0 minutes together.
Jones, Dosunmu, Giddey, Miller, and Olbrich played 1.9 minutes together.
Huerter, Jones, Giddey, Buzelis, and Vucevic played 1.9 minutes together.
Carter, Williams, Jones, Dosunmu, and Buzelis played 1.9 minutes together.
Williams, Jones, Dosunmu, Miller, and Olbrich played 1.7 minutes together.
Jones, Dosunmu, Giddey, Miller, and Vucevic played 1.6 minutes together.
Williams, Dosunmu, Giddey, Miller, and Olbrich played 1.4 minutes together.
Huerter, Jones, Giddey, Buzelis, and Olbrich played 1.0 minutes together.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Mathews, Jackson, Walker, and McConnell played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Jackson, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Nembhard, Jackson, Walker, and McConnell played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Huff, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Nembhard, Robinson-Earl, Jackson, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Huff, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Siakam, Mathews, Huff, Walker, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Nembhard, Robinson-Earl, Jackson, Mathurin, and Walker played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mathews, Jackson, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Mathews, Jackson, and Walker played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

