Win probability changed during the game. · 3 December 2025
It was more exciting than 86% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Barnes · Vassell · Fox · Champagnie · Kornet
Closing lineup · ORL
Bane · Wagner · Carter · da Silva · Black
Harrison Barnes
33′ · -1
Devin Vassell
32′ · -2
De'Aaron Fox
29′ · +10
Julian Champagnie
28′ · +4
Luke Kornet
28′ · +17
Keldon Johnson
25′ · -6
Dylan Harper
22′ · -5
Jeremy Sochan
20′ · -15
Carter Bryant
13′ · +4
David Jones Garcia
5′ · +3
Lindy Waters III
6′ · +1
Desmond Bane
38′ · -3
Franz Wagner
36′ · +8
Wendell Carter Jr.
29′ · -12
Jalen Suggs
27′ · -1
Tristan da Silva
26′ · -5
Anthony Black
28′ · -2
Goga Bitadze
19′ · +10
Noah Penda
3′ · -1
Tyus Jones
7′ · -1
Jonathan Isaac
12′ · -12
Jase Richardson
16′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, and Barnes played 16.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Waters, and Champagnie played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Suggs, and da Silva played 12.7 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Black, and Richardson played 6.2 minutes together.
Isaac, Carter, Suggs, Black, and Richardson played 4.8 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Orlando Magic lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Johnson, Sochan, Garcia, Harper, and Bryant played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Waters, and Bryant played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, Harper, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Fox, Kornet, Harper, Bryant, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, and Bryant played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Johnson, Sochan, Garcia, and Bryant played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Johnson, Sochan, Harper, and Bryant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, and Harper played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Orlando Magic
Jones, Isaac, Carter, Bane, and Black played 4.7 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Suggs, and da Silva played 4.7 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Suggs, and Richardson played 2.8 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 2.7 minutes together.
Carter, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and da Silva played 2.6 minutes together.
Jones, Bitadze, Wagner, Black, and Penda played 1.7 minutes together.
Isaac, Carter, Bane, Black, and da Silva played 1.4 minutes together.
Bitadze, Wagner, Black, da Silva, and Penda played 1.3 minutes together.
Isaac, Carter, Bane, Black, and Richardson played 1.3 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
