SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 18 December 2025

GSW98–99PHX
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ PHX winsGSW wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when GSW does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · GSW

Jimmy Butler III
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Moses Moody
Brandin Podziemski

Butler · Curry · Green · Moody · Podziemski

Closing lineup · PHX

Devin Booker
Dillon Brooks
Royce O'Neale
Jordan Goodwin
Ryan Dunn

Booker · Brooks · O'Neale · Goodwin · Dunn

Q1Q2Q3Q4
GSW
Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III

34′ · 0

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

33′ · -12

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

30′ · -10

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

30′ · -1

Quinten Post

Quinten Post

27′ · -1

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

3′ · -7

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Trayce Jackson-Davis

7′ · +3

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski

28′ · +15

De'Anthony Melton

De'Anthony Melton

15′ · +7

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

10′ · 0

Gui Santos

Gui Santos

14′ · +2

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

10′ · -1

PHX
Collin Gillespie

Collin Gillespie

34′ · +12

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

33′ · -8

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

33′ · -13

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

31′ · +6

Mark Williams

Mark Williams

19′ · +12

Jordan Goodwin

Jordan Goodwin

30′ · -9

Oso Ighodaro

Oso Ighodaro

28′ · -12

Ryan Dunn

Ryan Dunn

17′ · +11

Jamaree Bouyea

Jamaree Bouyea

14′ · +2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and PHX.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Moody, Post, Curry, Butler, and Green played 9.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Melton, Moody, Podziemski, Post, and Butler played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Moody, Podziemski, Curry, Butler, and Green played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Williams, and Gillespie played 10.5 minutes together.

  • Booker, Brooks, Goodwin, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 8.5 minutes together.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Goodwin, and Ighodaro played 7.8 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Phoenix Suns lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Golden State Warriors

  • Hield, Kuminga, Santos, Curry, and Green played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hield, Melton, Podziemski, Post, and Butler played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kuminga, Santos, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Moody, Santos, Podziemski, Post, and Butler played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hield, Santos, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, and Curry played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Melton, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Melton, Moody, Curry, Butler, and Green played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payton, Moody, Post, Curry, and Butler played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, Post, and Butler played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kuminga, Santos, Podziemski, Post, and Butler played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Melton, Moody, Jackson-Davis, Curry, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Podziemski, Post, Curry, Butler, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

Phoenix Suns

  • Goodwin, Bouyea, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 4.9 minutes together.

  • O'Neale, Williams, Bouyea, Gillespie, and Dunn played 4.1 minutes together.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Goodwin, and Williams played 2.1 minutes together.

  • O'Neale, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.9 minutes together.

  • O'Neale, Bouyea, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.7 minutes together.

  • O'Neale, Goodwin, Bouyea, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.3 minutes together.

  • Booker, Brooks, Goodwin, Williams, and Dunn played 1.2 minutes together.

  • O'Neale, Brooks, Bouyea, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Booker, Goodwin, Williams, Bouyea, and Dunn played 1.1 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.071
100% of capacity
Mortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
Scoring
197
combined points
34.2 below the season average (231.2)