Win probability changed during the game. · 30 December 2025
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 39 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Maxey · Edgecombe · George · Embiid · Grimes
Closing lineup · MEM
Coward · Jackson · Morant · Wells · Aldama
Tyrese Maxey
43′ · +2
VJ Edgecombe
41′ · -1
Paul George
39′ · +11
Joel Embiid
38′ · -5
Dominick Barlow
24′ · -14
Quentin Grimes
38′ · +18
Adem Bona
26′ · +3
Jared McCain
13′ · +5
Justin Edwards
4′ · -4
Cedric Coward
37′ · +14
Jaren Jackson Jr.
37′ · +9
Ja Morant
34′ · +11
Jaylen Wells
32′ · -3
Christian Koloko
20′ · +5
Jock Landale
18′ · -11
Santi Aldama
36′ · -10
GG Jackson
23′ · -18
Cam Spencer
19′ · -14
Javon Small
9′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Barlow, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 12.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, and George played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Wells, and Coward played 12.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jackson, Morant, Koloko, Jackson, and Coward played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Jackson, Morant, Koloko, Wells, and Coward played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Grimes, Maxey, Barlow, Bona, and Edgecombe played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Grimes, Bona, McCain, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, McCain, and George played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, McCain, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, George, and Embiid played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Barlow, Edwards, and Embiid played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, Barlow, McCain, George, and Embiid played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Barlow, George, and Embiid played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Barlow, McCain, Edwards, and Embiid played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Grimes, Bona, McCain, Edgecombe, and George played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Landale, Aldama, Spencer, and Wells played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Landale, Aldama, Jackson, Spencer, and Wells played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Jackson, Aldama, Spencer, Coward, and Small played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Aldama, Koloko, Jackson, Spencer, and Small played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Landale, Aldama, Jackson, Spencer, and Small played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Morant, Aldama, Koloko, Jackson, and Coward played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Landale, Morant, Aldama, Jackson, and Wells played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Landale, Morant, Wells, and Coward played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Landale, Aldama, Jackson, Spencer, and Coward played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
