Win probability changed during the game. · 2 January 2026
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 16 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when CHA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHA
Bridges · Knueppel · Miller · Ball · James
Closing lineup · MIL
Green · Rollins · Porter · Antetokounmpo · Portis
Miles Bridges
37′ · -22
Kon Knueppel
34′ · -2
Brandon Miller
30′ · -7
LaMelo Ball
26′ · -9
PJ Hall
19′ · -22
Tidjane Salaun
22′ · +26
Sion James
27′ · +6
Josh Green
13′ · +11
Collin Sexton
27′ · +10
Liam McNeeley
5′ · +4
AJ Green
41′ · +1
Ryan Rollins
37′ · +12
Kevin Porter Jr.
36′ · +1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
30′ · +21
Myles Turner
22′ · +6
Kyle Kuzma
32′ · -7
Gary Trent Jr.
17′ · -17
Bobby Portis
22′ · -8
Jericho Sims
2′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Miller, Hall, and Knueppel played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Sexton, Green, Salaun, Knueppel, and James played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Bridges, Sexton, Salaun, Knueppel, and James played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Milwaukee Bucks
Turner, Porter, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 13.0 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Porter, and Green played 6.6 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Rollins, and Antetokounmpo played 5.0 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Milwaukee Bucks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Miller, Knueppel, and James played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Green, Miller, Salaun, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Sexton, Ball, Hall, and Knueppel played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Green, Miller, Salaun, and James played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Sexton, Ball, Miller, and Hall played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Sexton, Ball, McNeeley, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ball, Miller, Salaun, Knueppel, and McNeeley played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Sexton, Miller, Hall, and Knueppel played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Sexton, Miller, Hall, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Ball, Miller, Salaun, and James played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Ball, Miller, Salaun, and Knueppel played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
Turner, Kuzma, Porter, Rollins, and Green played 4.6 minutes together.
Kuzma, Porter, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 3.2 minutes together.
Portis, Porter, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Porter, and Sims played 2.3 minutes together.
Turner, Kuzma, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.3 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Porter, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.1 minutes together.
Turner, Kuzma, Trent, Rollins, and Green played 1.9 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 1.8 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Porter, Rollins, and Green played 1.1 minutes together.
Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Rollins, and Green played 1.0 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
