Win probability changed during the game. · 5 January 2026
It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 53 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Brooks · Booker · O'Neale · Gillespie · Goodwin
Closing lineup · HOU
Durant · Smith · Thompson · Eason · Okogie
Dillon Brooks
34′ · -5
Devin Booker
33′ · 0
Royce O'Neale
31′ · +2
Collin Gillespie
25′ · -1
Mark Williams
21′ · 0
Jordan Goodwin
25′ · +3
Grayson Allen
22′ · -8
Oso Ighodaro
27′ · -3
Ryan Dunn
17′ · -3
Rasheer Fleming
5′ · 0
Kevin Durant
39′ · +4
Jabari Smith Jr.
38′ · +5
Amen Thompson
37′ · -7
Steven Adams
31′ · +7
Tari Eason
30′ · +4
Reed Sheppard
23′ · +8
Dorian Finney-Smith
14′ · -2
Clint Capela
9′ · -2
Josh Okogie
9′ · +4
Aaron Holiday
10′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Williams, and Gillespie played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Allen, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Goodwin, and Ighodaro played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Houston Rockets
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Smith, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Allen, and Williams played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Brooks, Allen, Goodwin, and Ighodaro played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
O'Neale, Gillespie, Ighodaro, Dunn, and Fleming played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, O'Neale, Brooks, Goodwin, and Williams played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Allen, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Brooks, Allen, Goodwin, and Williams played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Allen, Goodwin, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Houston Rockets
Finney-Smith, Holiday, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okogie, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Capela played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Finney-Smith, Holiday, Smith, Thompson, and Adams played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Capela played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Holiday, Okogie, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Okogie, Thompson, Durant, and Capela played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Durant, and Capela played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

