Win probability changed during the game. · 5 January 2026
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHI leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Watson · Jones · Pickett · Brown · Nnaji
Closing lineup · PHI
Maxey · Edgecombe · Embiid · George · Grimes
Peyton Watson
44′ · +2
Spencer Jones
43′ · +8
Jalen Pickett
42′ · +6
Bruce Brown
39′ · -8
DaRon Holmes II
21′ · +3
Zeke Nnaji
32′ · -2
Julian Strawther
15′ · -5
Curtis Jones
8′ · -1
Hunter Tyson
19′ · +2
Tyrese Maxey
46′ · -1
VJ Edgecombe
42′ · -7
Joel Embiid
40′ · +8
Paul George
32′ · -18
Dominick Barlow
13′ · -7
Quentin Grimes
40′ · +9
Jabari Walker
12′ · +11
Adem Bona
23′ · -6
Jared McCain
19′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and PHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Brown, Pickett, Watson, Holmes, and Jones played 18.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, Watson, and Jones played 12.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Nnaji, Strawther, Watson, Tyson, and Jones played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Barlow, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 12.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Brown, Nnaji, Strawther, Watson, and Tyson played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, Tyson, and Jones played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Watson, Tyson, and Jones played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Pickett, Holmes, Tyson, and Jones played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Nnaji, Strawther, Tyson, Jones, and Jones played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Nnaji, Strawther, Jones, and Jones played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Philadelphia 76ers
Grimes, Bona, McCain, Edgecombe, and George played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, Maxey, Walker, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, McCain, and Embiid played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, McCain, and George played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Walker, Bona, and McCain played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, Walker, McCain, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Grimes, Maxey, Walker, McCain, and Embiid played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, and George played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
