Win probability changed during the game. · 7 January 2026
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when BKN leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Carter · Black · Bane · da Silva
Closing lineup · BKN
Porter · Clowney · Sharpe · Williams · Powell
Paolo Banchero
43′ · -3
Wendell Carter Jr.
39′ · -6
Anthony Black
37′ · -2
Desmond Bane
35′ · -6
Tristan da Silva
24′ · +13
Jett Howard
14′ · +4
Goga Bitadze
14′ · +5
Noah Penda
31′ · -8
Tyus Jones
17′ · +4
Jonathan Isaac
10′ · +4
Michael Porter Jr.
38′ · +1
Noah Clowney
33′ · +12
Egor Demin
32′ · +10
Day'Ron Sharpe
30′ · +7
Ziaire Williams
27′ · +4
Nic Claxton
23′ · -8
Danny Wolf
18′ · -2
Cam Thomas
24′ · -10
Nolan Traore
20′ · -8
Drake Powell
19′ · -11
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and BKN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 13.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 18 points.
Jones, Isaac, Carter, Howard, and Penda played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brooklyn Nets
Porter, Williams, Sharpe, Clowney, and Demin played 27.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Claxton, Thomas, Traore, Wolf, and Powell played 14.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Porter, Claxton, Thomas, Traore, and Powell played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Jones, Isaac, Carter, Bane, and Penda played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bitadze, Banchero, Black, Howard, and da Silva played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Bitadze, Banchero, Howard, and Penda played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Carter, Bane, Banchero, and Penda played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bitadze, Banchero, Black, Howard, and Penda played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Carter, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bitadze, Banchero, Black, da Silva, and Penda played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brooklyn Nets
Porter, Claxton, Thomas, Clowney, and Traore played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Porter, Sharpe, Thomas, Clowney, and Demin played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Porter, Claxton, Thomas, Demin, and Wolf played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Porter, Claxton, Clowney, Demin, and Wolf played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
