SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 22 January 2026

DEN107–97WAS
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ WAS winsDEN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when DEN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DEN

Peyton Watson
Jamal Murray
Jalen Pickett
Aaron Gordon
Spencer Jones

Watson · Murray · Pickett · Gordon · Jones

Closing lineup · WAS

Bub Carrington
Alex Sarr
Kyshawn George
Tre Johnson
Khris Middleton

Carrington · Sarr · George · Johnson · Middleton

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DEN
Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson

40′ · +13

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

36′ · +18

Jalen Pickett

Jalen Pickett

33′ · +16

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

33′ · +23

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

22′ · -3

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

20′ · -8

Zeke Nnaji

Zeke Nnaji

10′ · -2

Spencer Jones

Spencer Jones

28′ · 0

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown

18′ · -7

WAS
Bub Carrington

Bub Carrington

38′ · -18

Alex Sarr

Alex Sarr

36′ · -9

Kyshawn George

Kyshawn George

34′ · -4

Tre Johnson

Tre Johnson

34′ · -11

Khris Middleton

Khris Middleton

28′ · -18

Justin Champagnie

Justin Champagnie

18′ · +2

Will Riley

Will Riley

21′ · +5

Jamir Watkins

Jamir Watkins

18′ · +2

Anthony Gill

Anthony Gill

12′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and WAS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Pickett, Watson, Valanciunas, and Gordon played 11.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Murray, Pickett, Watson, Jones, and Gordon played 7.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Brown, Pickett, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Washington Wizards

  • Sarr, Carrington, George, Johnson, and Middleton played 19.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Sarr, George, Watkins, Johnson, and Riley played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gill, Champagnie, Carrington, Watkins, and Riley played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Nnaji, Watson, Jones, and Hardaway played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Brown, Pickett, Watson, and Gordon played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Watson, Jones, Valanciunas, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Murray, Brown, Nnaji, Jones, and Hardaway played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brown, Pickett, Watson, Jones, and Gordon played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Murray, Watson, Jones, Hardaway, and Gordon played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Pickett, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Nnaji, Watson, Hardaway, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brown, Nnaji, Watson, Jones, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Gordon played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Washington Wizards

  • Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Johnson, and Riley played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Champagnie, Sarr, George, Johnson, and Riley played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Gill, Carrington, Watkins, Riley, and Middleton played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Gill, Carrington, George, Watkins, and Middleton played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gill, Champagnie, George, Watkins, and Riley played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Johnson, and Middleton played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Watkins, and Middleton played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.040
74% of capacity
Capital One Arena · Washington
Scoring
204
combined points
27.2 below the season average (231.2)