Win probability changed during the game. · 22 January 2026
It was more exciting than 53% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Watson · Murray · Pickett · Gordon · Jones
Closing lineup · WAS
Carrington · Sarr · George · Johnson · Middleton
Peyton Watson
40′ · +13
Jamal Murray
36′ · +18
Jalen Pickett
33′ · +16
Aaron Gordon
33′ · +23
Jonas Valanciunas
22′ · -3
Tim Hardaway Jr.
20′ · -8
Zeke Nnaji
10′ · -2
Spencer Jones
28′ · 0
Bruce Brown
18′ · -7
Bub Carrington
38′ · -18
Alex Sarr
36′ · -9
Kyshawn George
34′ · -4
Tre Johnson
34′ · -11
Khris Middleton
28′ · -18
Justin Champagnie
18′ · +2
Will Riley
21′ · +5
Jamir Watkins
18′ · +2
Anthony Gill
12′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Pickett, Watson, Valanciunas, and Gordon played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Murray, Pickett, Watson, Jones, and Gordon played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Pickett, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Washington Wizards
Sarr, Carrington, George, Johnson, and Middleton played 19.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Sarr, George, Watkins, Johnson, and Riley played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Gill, Champagnie, Carrington, Watkins, and Riley played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Nnaji, Watson, Jones, and Hardaway played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Watson, and Gordon played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Watson, Jones, Valanciunas, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Brown, Nnaji, Jones, and Hardaway played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Pickett, Watson, Jones, and Gordon played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Watson, Jones, Hardaway, and Gordon played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Pickett, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Nnaji, Watson, Hardaway, and Gordon played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Nnaji, Watson, Jones, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Gordon played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Washington Wizards
Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Johnson, and Riley played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Champagnie, Sarr, George, Johnson, and Riley played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gill, Carrington, Watkins, Riley, and Middleton played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Gill, Carrington, George, Watkins, and Middleton played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gill, Champagnie, George, Watkins, and Riley played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Johnson, and Middleton played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, Watkins, and Middleton played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

