Win probability changed during the game. · 29 January 2026
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when CHA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHA
Bridges · Knueppel · Diabate · Miller · James
Closing lineup · DAL
Flagg · Washington · Christie · Gafford · Thompson
Miles Bridges
38′ · +11
Kon Knueppel
36′ · +7
Moussa Diabate
32′ · 0
LaMelo Ball
31′ · +9
Brandon Miller
27′ · +12
Josh Green
15′ · -8
Sion James
16′ · -5
Ryan Kalkbrenner
15′ · 0
Tidjane Salaun
10′ · -9
Collin Sexton
20′ · -7
Cooper Flagg
38′ · +2
P.J. Washington
35′ · -5
Max Christie
29′ · -13
Caleb Martin
27′ · -11
Daniel Gafford
25′ · -8
Dwight Powell
5′ · -3
Klay Thompson
27′ · +3
Brandon Williams
21′ · +11
Moussa Cisse
17′ · +11
Ryan Nembhard
9′ · -2
Jaden Hardy
6′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Diabate, Miller, and Knueppel played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Bridges, Green, Kalkbrenner, Knueppel, and James played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Sexton, Ball, Diabate, and Knueppel played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dallas Mavericks
Martin, Washington, Gafford, Christie, and Flagg played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Washington, Gafford, Williams, Flagg, and Thompson played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Washington, Christie, Flagg, and Powell played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Sexton, Ball, Diabate, and Miller played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Bridges, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Knueppel played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Green, Kalkbrenner, Salaun, Knueppel, and James played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sexton, Ball, Diabate, Miller, and Salaun played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Sexton, Miller, Kalkbrenner, Salaun, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bridges, Sexton, Green, Diabate, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bridges, Sexton, Miller, Kalkbrenner, and Knueppel played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Ball, Kalkbrenner, Salaun, and Knueppel played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Green, Diabate, Knueppel, and James played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bridges, Miller, Kalkbrenner, Knueppel, and James played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Washington, Cisse, Hardy, Flagg, and Nembhard played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Washington, Williams, Cisse, Christie, and Flagg played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Washington, Gafford, Christie, Flagg, and Thompson played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Martin, Gafford, Williams, Christie, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Washington, Williams, Cisse, Flagg, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Washington, Cisse, Flagg, Nembhard, and Thompson played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Martin, Gafford, Christie, Flagg, and Thompson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Martin, Washington, Gafford, Williams, and Thompson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Martin, Williams, Cisse, Christie, and Thompson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Martin, Williams, Cisse, Flagg, and Thompson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Cisse, Hardy, Flagg, and Nembhard played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Gafford, Hardy, Christie, and Nembhard played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Washington, Cisse, Christie, Flagg, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

