Win probability changed during the game. · 1 March 2026
It was more exciting than 55% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · DiVincenzo · McDaniels · Randle · Dosunmu
Closing lineup · DEN
Strawther · Nnaji · Pickett · Simpson · Holmes
Anthony Edwards
39′ · +2
Rudy Gobert
38′ · +12
Donte DiVincenzo
36′ · +3
Jaden McDaniels
33′ · +20
Julius Randle
32′ · +7
Naz Reid
26′ · -1
Ayo Dosunmu
21′ · +2
Bones Hyland
16′ · 0
Jamal Murray
39′ · -7
Christian Braun
38′ · +2
Nikola Jokic
37′ · +4
Cameron Johnson
23′ · -13
Julian Strawther
17′ · +8
Tim Hardaway Jr.
34′ · -17
Bruce Brown
28′ · -12
Jonas Valanciunas
10′ · -15
Zeke Nnaji
6′ · -7
Jalen Pickett
6′ · +8
KJ Simpson
1′ · +2
DaRon Holmes II
1′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Randle played 20.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Reid, Edwards, Dosunmu, Hyland, and Randle played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Strawther, Braun, and Jokic played 13.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Brown, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Pickett, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Reid, Dosunmu, Hyland, and Gobert played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Reid, McDaniels, Dosunmu, Hyland, and Gobert played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, Dosunmu, and Randle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Dosunmu, and Randle played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, Dosunmu, Gobert, and Randle played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Nnaji, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Strawther, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Johnson, Nnaji, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, Holmes, and Simpson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
