Win probability changed during the game. · 12 March 2026
It was more exciting than 28% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Powell · Saraf · Minott · Johnson · Liddell
Closing lineup · ATL
Alexander-Walker · Johnson · McCollum · Okongwu · Risacher
Drake Powell
32′ · -17
Ben Saraf
31′ · -13
Danny Wolf
28′ · -9
Nic Claxton
21′ · -6
Noah Clowney
20′ · -4
Tyson Etienne
18′ · +1
Jalen Wilson
17′ · -1
Josh Minott
24′ · +2
Chaney Johnson
20′ · -4
Terance Mann
16′ · +6
E.J. Liddell
13′ · -10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
36′ · +9
Jalen Johnson
36′ · +12
CJ McCollum
30′ · +1
Onyeka Okongwu
30′ · +6
Corey Kispert
20′ · +6
Zaccharie Risacher
31′ · +17
Gabe Vincent
19′ · +10
Jock Landale
13′ · +3
Jonathan Kuminga
19′ · -11
Mouhamed Gueye
5′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
Claxton, Clowney, Wolf, Saraf, and Powell played 18.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Mann, Wilson, Etienne, Minott, and Johnson played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Liddell, Minott, Wolf, Saraf, and Powell played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Johnson, Kispert, and McCollum played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Kuminga, Johnson, and McCollum played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Vincent, Okongwu, Johnson, Kispert, and Risacher played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
Liddell, Minott, Saraf, Powell, and Johnson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Liddell, Etienne, Saraf, Powell, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Claxton, Wilson, Etienne, Wolf, and Powell played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Mann, Wilson, Liddell, Minott, and Johnson played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Johnson, Risacher, and McCollum played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Landale, Vincent, Alexander-Walker, Kuminga, and Risacher played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Landale, Kuminga, Kispert, Risacher, and McCollum played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Vincent, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Johnson, and Risacher played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Landale, Vincent, Alexander-Walker, Johnson, and Risacher played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Alexander-Walker, Kuminga, Gueye, Risacher, and McCollum played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Landale, Alexander-Walker, Kuminga, Risacher, and McCollum played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Landale, Vincent, Johnson, Kispert, and Risacher played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Vincent, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Kuminga, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

