Win probability changed during the game. · 18 March 2026
It was more exciting than 5% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when TOR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · TOR
Battle · Dick · Mogbo · Temple · Jackson-Davis
Closing lineup · CHI
Miller · Dillingham · Williams · Olbrich · Kawamura
Brandon Ingram
29′ · +37
RJ Barrett
27′ · +25
Immanuel Quickley
26′ · +24
Scottie Barnes
25′ · +14
Jakob Poeltl
21′ · +33
Ja'Kobe Walter
21′ · +20
Jamal Shead
18′ · +20
Sandro Mamukelashvili
22′ · +2
Jamison Battle
22′ · -2
Gradey Dick
10′ · -6
Jonathan Mogbo
7′ · -6
Garrett Temple
7′ · -6
Trayce Jackson-Davis
5′ · -5
Matas Buzelis
31′ · -24
Josh Giddey
27′ · -30
Leonard Miller
27′ · -10
Tre Jones
24′ · -14
Jalen Smith
17′ · -9
Rob Dillingham
25′ · -11
Nick Richards
16′ · -20
Patrick Williams
26′ · -21
Collin Sexton
18′ · -13
Guerschon Yabusele
14′ · -12
Lachlan Olbrich
8′ · +6
Yuki Kawamura
8′ · +8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Poeltl, Barrett, Quickley, and Barnes played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Battle played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson-Davis, Dick, Mogbo, Battle, and Temple played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Chicago Bulls
Smith, Jones, Giddey, Miller, and Buzelis played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Miller, Dillingham, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Yabusele, Williams, Jones, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, and Mamukelashvili played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Battle played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Poeltl, Barrett, Shead, and Battle played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Ingram, Poeltl, Quickley, Barnes, and Shead played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Walter played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Poeltl, Barrett, Quickley, and Walter played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Ingram, Barrett, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Shead played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Mamukelashvili, Dick, Walter, Shead, and Battle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mamukelashvili, Dick, Mogbo, Battle, and Temple played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, and Walter played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Poeltl, Quickley, Dick, Walter, and Battle played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Battle played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Ingram, Poeltl, Barrett, Walter, and Shead played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Chicago Bulls
Yabusele, Sexton, Williams, Jones, and Giddey played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Smith, Giddey, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Smith, Jones, Giddey, and Buzelis played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Yabusele, Sexton, Giddey, Miller, and Buzelis played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Yabusele, Sexton, Williams, Giddey, and Miller played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Smith, Richards, Giddey, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Sexton, Williams, Richards, Giddey, and Buzelis played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Richards, Miller, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Yabusele, Sexton, Williams, Jones, and Dillingham played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Jones, Richards, Giddey, and Buzelis played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sexton, Richards, Miller, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Smith, Jones, Miller, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sexton, Williams, Richards, Miller, and Dillingham played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Richards, Dillingham, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Williams, Richards, Giddey, and Dillingham played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
