Win probability changed during the game. · 19 March 2026
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on PHX's side, but SAS won 101-100. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Goodwin · Gillespie · Booker · Ighodaro · Dunn
Closing lineup · SAS
Wembanyama · Champagnie · Vassell · Fox · Harper
Jordan Goodwin
35′ · -14
Collin Gillespie
34′ · +3
Devin Booker
34′ · -12
Oso Ighodaro
34′ · -1
Jalen Green
34′ · -5
Ryan Dunn
20′ · -2
Khaman Maluach
14′ · 0
Rasheer Fleming
20′ · +11
Jamaree Bouyea
9′ · +12
Amir Coffey
6′ · +3
Victor Wembanyama
35′ · +18
Julian Champagnie
34′ · -1
Devin Vassell
33′ · +21
De'Aaron Fox
33′ · -7
Harrison Barnes
23′ · -4
Dylan Harper
26′ · +10
Keldon Johnson
20′ · -5
Carter Bryant
10′ · -15
Luke Kornet
15′ · -18
Jordan McLaughlin
10′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Green, Goodwin, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 11.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Green, Goodwin, Dunn, and Maluach played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Coffey, Green, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Harper played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, McLaughlin, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Green, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Green, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bouyea, Gillespie, Ighodaro, Dunn, and Fleming played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Green, Goodwin, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Goodwin, Bouyea, Gillespie, and Maluach played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Bouyea, Dunn, Fleming, and Maluach played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Goodwin, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Green, Goodwin, Fleming, and Maluach played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Goodwin, Bouyea, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Gillespie, Dunn, Fleming, and Maluach played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Harper played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Fox, Champagnie, Wembanyama, Bryant, and Barnes played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, Harper, and Bryant played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Harper, and Bryant played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
McLaughlin, Vassell, Wembanyama, Harper, and Barnes played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, and Wembanyama played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
McLaughlin, Champagnie, Wembanyama, Harper, and Barnes played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, and Champagnie played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Bryant, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, and Harper played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
McLaughlin, Johnson, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Harper played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Harper, and Barnes played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
