Win probability changed during the game. · 6 April 2026
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Avdija · Holiday · Henderson · Thybulle · Williams
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Braun · Murray · Johnson · Gordon
Deni Avdija
39′ · -15
Jrue Holiday
39′ · -1
Scoot Henderson
36′ · -15
Toumani Camara
35′ · +2
Donovan Clingan
30′ · -5
Matisse Thybulle
33′ · +8
Kris Murray
22′ · +2
Robert Williams III
23′ · 0
Sidy Cissoko
8′ · -1
Nikola Jokic
43′ · +5
Christian Braun
40′ · +10
Jamal Murray
38′ · +11
Cameron Johnson
37′ · +25
Aaron Gordon
31′ · +5
Tim Hardaway Jr.
23′ · -24
Bruce Brown
24′ · -3
Julian Strawther
19′ · -4
Jonas Valanciunas
10′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Avdija, Camara, and Holiday played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Thybulle, Avdija, Murray, Camara, and Clingan played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 19.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 23 points.
Murray, Braun, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Johnson, Strawther, Hardaway, and Jokic played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Williams, Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, and Holiday played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Avdija, Murray, and Camara played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Thybulle, Henderson, Murray, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Thybulle, Henderson, Cissoko, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Henderson, Murray, Cissoko, and Clingan played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Henderson, Cissoko, and Holiday played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Thybulle, Murray, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Murray, and Camara played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Henderson, Murray, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Henderson, Camara, and Holiday played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Henderson, Murray, Camara, and Clingan played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Strawther, and Valanciunas played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Strawther, Braun, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Brown, Strawther, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Johnson, Strawther, Braun, and Valanciunas played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Brown, Johnson, Strawther, Braun, and Jokic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

