Win probability changed during the game. · 8 April 2026
It was more exciting than 16% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Camara · Avdija · Henderson · Holiday · Murray
Closing lineup · SAS
Fox · Harper · Vassell · Kornet · Johnson
Toumani Camara
40′ · +7
Deni Avdija
38′ · +7
Scoot Henderson
38′ · -7
Jrue Holiday
31′ · -9
Donovan Clingan
28′ · -4
Matisse Thybulle
24′ · -19
Kris Murray
12′ · -9
Robert Williams III
13′ · -11
Sidy Cissoko
9′ · -8
Blake Wesley
4′ · +2
Caleb Love
2′ · -4
De'Aaron Fox
35′ · -3
Dylan Harper
33′ · +6
Devin Vassell
31′ · 0
Julian Champagnie
27′ · +6
Luke Kornet
26′ · +5
Keldon Johnson
29′ · +13
Harrison Barnes
27′ · +13
Carter Bryant
25′ · +6
Jordan McLaughlin
9′ · +9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 14.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Henderson, Murray, and Holiday played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Thybulle, Avdija, Murray, Camara, and Clingan played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, and Harper played 11.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Champagnie, Harper, Bryant, and Barnes played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, and Harper played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Henderson, Murray, Camara, and Holiday played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Thybulle, Henderson, Wesley, Camara, and Clingan played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Thybulle, Love, Cissoko, and Holiday played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Clingan played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Thybulle, Avdija, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, Murray, and Camara played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Holiday played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Wesley, and Camara played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Avdija, Cissoko, Camara, and Holiday played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Thybulle, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Thybulle, Avdija, Henderson, Cissoko, and Clingan played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Kornet, McLaughlin, Vassell, and Barnes played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Bryant, and Barnes played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Harper, and Bryant played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Harper, Bryant, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Kornet, McLaughlin, Bryant, and Barnes played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, and Bryant played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Fox, Kornet, McLaughlin, Johnson, and Vassell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
McLaughlin, Johnson, Harper, Bryant, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

