Win probability changed during the game. · 9 April 2026
It was more exciting than 30% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
Williams · Miller · Sexton · Dillingham · Kawamura
Closing lineup · WAS
Black · Gill · Reese · Riley · Watkins
Patrick Williams
39′ · +11
Leonard Miller
39′ · +11
Collin Sexton
34′ · +12
Tre Jones
30′ · +19
Guerschon Yabusele
16′ · +8
Rob Dillingham
27′ · -3
Lachlan Olbrich
17′ · +1
Mac McClung
15′ · -4
Yuki Kawamura
22′ · 0
Leaky Black
41′ · -12
Anthony Gill
39′ · -18
Julian Reese
39′ · -17
Will Riley
38′ · -18
Bub Carrington
24′ · -7
Justin Champagnie
18′ · +10
Sharife Cooper
14′ · +9
Jamir Watkins
28′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Yabusele, Sexton, Williams, Jones, and Miller played 8.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Sexton, Williams, Miller, Dillingham, and Kawamura played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Williams, Jones, Miller, and Olbrich played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Washington Wizards
Gill, Black, Carrington, Riley, and Reese played 14.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Gill, Black, Watkins, Riley, and Reese played 12.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Gill, Champagnie, Black, Watkins, and Riley played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Williams, Jones, Miller, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Jones, McClung, Miller, and Dillingham played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, McClung, Dillingham, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Yabusele, Sexton, Jones, McClung, and Miller played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Yabusele, Williams, Jones, Dillingham, and Kawamura played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Williams, Jones, Miller, and Dillingham played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sexton, McClung, Miller, Dillingham, and Olbrich played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Williams, Dillingham, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Jones, McClung, Dillingham, and Kawamura played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Williams, McClung, Miller, and Dillingham played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Washington Wizards
Cooper, Champagnie, Watkins, Riley, and Reese played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gill, Cooper, Black, Carrington, and Reese played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Cooper, Black, Carrington, Watkins, and Reese played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gill, Champagnie, Black, Carrington, and Reese played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Gill, Cooper, Champagnie, Carrington, and Watkins played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cooper, Champagnie, Black, Carrington, and Reese played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gill, Cooper, Champagnie, Black, and Watkins played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gill, Cooper, Champagnie, Watkins, and Riley played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
