Win probability changed during the game. · 10 April 2026
It was more exciting than 56% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Topic · Carlson · Barnhizer · Williams · Sandfort
Closing lineup · DEN
Pickett · Roddy · Jones · Simpson · Holmes
Nikola Topic
39′ · -17
Branden Carlson
37′ · -21
Jared McCain
25′ · -4
Aaron Wiggins
25′ · -2
Luguentz Dort
20′ · -8
Brooks Barnhizer
33′ · -15
Kenrich Williams
32′ · -22
Payton Sandfort
28′ · -11
Julian Strawther
34′ · +10
Jonas Valanciunas
32′ · +16
Tim Hardaway Jr.
28′ · +5
Bruce Brown
26′ · +7
Tyus Jones
23′ · +7
Jalen Pickett
30′ · +17
David Roddy
26′ · +14
Zeke Nnaji
14′ · -1
Curtis Jones
20′ · +14
KJ Simpson
7′ · +6
DaRon Holmes II
2′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Williams, Topic, Sandfort, Carlson, and Barnhizer played 18.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 18 points.
Dort, Wiggins, Topic, McCain, and Carlson played 11.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Dort, Wiggins, McCain, and Barnhizer played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Denver Nuggets
Jones, Brown, Strawther, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Pickett, Strawther, Roddy, Jones, and Valanciunas played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, Roddy, and Jones played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Williams, Wiggins, Topic, Sandfort, and Carlson played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Topic, McCain, Sandfort, and Barnhizer played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Wiggins, Topic, McCain, Carlson, and Barnhizer played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wiggins, Topic, Sandfort, Carlson, and Barnhizer played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Williams, Dort, McCain, Sandfort, and Barnhizer played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Denver Nuggets
Jones, Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Brown, Simpson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, Roddy, and Hardaway played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Pickett, Roddy, Holmes, Simpson, and Jones played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, Roddy, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, and Roddy played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
