Win probability changed during the game. · 12 April 2026
It was more exciting than 10% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Clifford · Raynaud · Achiuwa · Carter · Hayes
Closing lineup · POR
Love · Cissoko · Kent · Yang · Wesley
Nique Clifford
39′ · -12
Maxime Raynaud
37′ · -9
Precious Achiuwa
35′ · -1
Devin Carter
34′ · -10
Daeqwon Plowden
22′ · -8
Doug McDermott
26′ · 0
Dylan Cardwell
21′ · -12
Killian Hayes
26′ · -8
Toumani Camara
34′ · +1
Jrue Holiday
33′ · +10
Deni Avdija
33′ · +12
Scoot Henderson
27′ · +6
Donovan Clingan
24′ · +9
Shaedon Sharpe
17′ · +5
Matisse Thybulle
7′ · +1
Robert Williams III
23′ · +7
Kris Murray
30′ · +27
Vit Krejci
5′ · +2
Caleb Love
2′ · -4
Sidy Cissoko
2′ · -4
Jayson Kent
2′ · -4
Hansen Yang
2′ · -4
Blake Wesley
2′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Plowden, Carter, Clifford, and Raynaud played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hayes, Achiuwa, Carter, Clifford, and Raynaud played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hayes, Achiuwa, Plowden, Cardwell, and McDermott played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Henderson, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Camara, and Holiday played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Henderson, Sharpe, Murray, Clingan, and Holiday played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Carter, Clifford, Raynaud, and McDermott played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hayes, Achiuwa, Clifford, Raynaud, and McDermott played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hayes, Plowden, Raynaud, Cardwell, and McDermott played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hayes, Carter, Clifford, Cardwell, and McDermott played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Plowden, Carter, Clifford, Raynaud, and Cardwell played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hayes, Carter, Clifford, Raynaud, and Cardwell played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Clifford, Raynaud, Cardwell, and McDermott played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Achiuwa, Carter, Clifford, Cardwell, and McDermott played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portland Trail Blazers
Krejci, Henderson, Murray, Clingan, and Holiday played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Avdija, Sharpe, and Camara played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Murray, and Camara played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Avdija, Henderson, Camara, and Holiday played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, and Camara played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Camara, and Clingan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wesley, Love, Cissoko, Yang, and Kent played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Murray, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Avdija, Murray, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Thybulle, Sharpe, Camara, and Holiday played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Henderson, Murray, Camara, and Holiday played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Henderson, Sharpe, Murray, and Clingan played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

