Win probability changed during the game. · 18 March 2026
It was more exciting than 79% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Braun · Murray · Jokic · Johnson · Hardaway
Closing lineup · MEM
Coward · Prosper · Clayton · Burton · Jarreau
Christian Braun
41′ · -5
Jamal Murray
41′ · +3
Nikola Jokic
39′ · -4
Cameron Johnson
33′ · -6
Spencer Jones
27′ · -22
Tim Hardaway Jr.
28′ · +5
Bruce Brown
20′ · -7
Jonas Valanciunas
6′ · -1
Julian Strawther
6′ · +2
GG Jackson
26′ · +9
Ty Jerome
25′ · +5
Jaylen Wells
25′ · +12
Cedric Coward
25′ · +4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
23′ · +12
Cam Spencer
20′ · -1
Taylor Hendricks
24′ · -4
Walter Clayton Jr.
20′ · 0
Javon Small
20′ · -1
Tyler Burton
13′ · -2
Taj Gibson
9′ · -1
DeJon Jarreau
10′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Jones, and Jokic played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Brown, Braun, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jerome, Jackson, Prosper, Wells, and Coward played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Burton, Hendricks, Spencer, Clayton, and Small played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jerome, Jarreau, Burton, Hendricks, and Wells played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Braun, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Braun, Jones, and Hardaway played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Johnson, Strawther, Braun, and Jokic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Brown, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Johnson, Strawther, Jones, and Valanciunas played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Johnson, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Braun, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jerome, Jackson, Coward, Small, and Gibson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hendricks, Prosper, Spencer, Wells, and Small played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jarreau, Hendricks, Prosper, Clayton, and Coward played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jerome, Hendricks, Prosper, Spencer, and Wells played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jackson, Prosper, Spencer, Coward, and Small played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jackson, Clayton, Coward, Small, and Gibson played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jerome, Jackson, Clayton, Coward, and Gibson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jerome, Hendricks, Jackson, Spencer, and Wells played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Jarreau, Burton, Prosper, Clayton, and Coward played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jarreau, Hendricks, Prosper, Wells, and Clayton played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
