Similar profiles
Davis Fogle
SG · Gonzaga
Perimeter scorer
What college players who played like him went on to do · NCAA 2026 (29 games, 17.3 min)
Outlook computed on 13 Sept 2026 · Draft 2027
NBA reach history
58 / 300 — Of the 300 college players who genuinely resembled him, 58 reached the NBAWhat became of them
Very close comps · 25 NBA analogs · median distance 1.732
Style comps
What do they share? scores heavily for his minutes · the offense runs through him · attacks the offensive glass
What do they share? attacks the offensive glass
What do they share? scores heavily for his minutes · the offense runs through him · attacks the offensive glass · barely shoots threes
Similarity of STYLE, not of quality: it measures how someone plays, not who is better. Every career in the cohort actually happened — it describes what became of similar profiles, and is not a forecast about this player.
Back-tested on 3,259 college players judged without looking at anything after their season. The reach history SEPARATES (AUC 0.71) — but mostly it tells "looks like an NBA player" from "doesn't": within each quintile AUC drops to 0.51-0.61, and among Draft Combine invitees to 0.50. The ordering of careers within the cohort does NOT hold (Spearman 0.10). It is a record, not a forecast.
Method: per-40-minute production and shot profile, standardized within his own season; Euclidean distance against 26.550 college seasons from 2005-2021 with a known NBA outcome. No language model in any decision.