2028: The Window That Could Unite Jokić and Dončić in Los Angeles
Analysts Anthony Irwin and Tim MacMahon point to both players' contract timelines as a potential meeting point. It's only a scenario — but our data says the fit would be far less redundant than it looks.
There's no offer, no phone call, no deal on the table. What exists are two contracts expiring at roughly the same time and a friendship off the court. From that, analysts Anthony Irwin and Tim MacMahon sketch a scenario: that the contract timelines of Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić could open a window around 2028 to see them together on the Lakers. It's speculation, and it should be read as such. But the basketball question deserves an answer: would it actually fit?
It's a scenario, not a news story. But if it ever happens, the fit is better than instinct suggests: Jokić fills the one measurable hole on the Lakers and creates without taking the ball out of Dončić's hands.
- No. 1 in rebounding, LAL ranks 27th
- Dominates the ball without barely dribbling it
- His contract expires in 2028
The window isn't a metaphor — it's a date. Jokić has three seasons left on his deal with the Denver Nuggets — $177.1 million in total, $55.2 million this season — and it expires right where Irwin and MacMahon place the opportunity.
The Creator Who Doesn't Need to Dribble
Jamal Murray35.4'Nikola Jokić34.8'
Christian Braun31.8'
Julian Strawther15.1'+15' headroom
Tyus Jones14.6'+15' headroomTo understand why this scenario isn't a tactical stretch, you have to look at how Jokić plays. He holds the ball far longer than a typical rotation player — 4.6 minutes per game with the ball in his hands, compared to a league median of 2 — but he barely dribbles it: 1.32 dribbles per touch, below the norm. In other words: he has it, but he doesn't punish it. He catches, reads, and distributes, to the tune of 10.7 assists per night.
And there's the detail almost no one cross-references. In Los Angeles, the ball already has owners: Dončić handles it 7.5 minutes per game and Austin Reaves another 5.7. Adding a third high-volume creator usually means pure redundancy. But Jokić creates from the post and the elbow, without stepping on anyone's dribble. Our read: he's the only elite creator whose geometry coexists with Luka's instead of competing with it.
The One Measurable Hole on the Lakers
The Lakers wrapped up a 53-29 season as the best shooting team in the league. Their weakness is one thing and one thing only: rebounding, where they rank 27th out of 30 teams. Jokić is, precisely, the No. 1 rebounder in the entire NBA, pulling down 12.9 boards per game. No theorizing required — the fit is written right there in two tables.
Add to that an across-the-board elite performance: Denver outscores opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor — a team figure, not pure individual credit, but few are better — paired with a 67% true shooting percentage. And our Signal engine detects that this season he's scoring more in the moments that matter than he did last year (4.8 points in clutch situations versus 4.2 in 2024-25, across 32 close games), though that measures volume, not efficiency.
What This Signing Wouldn't Buy
Let's be straight with the data: defense is not part of the package. Opponents shoot above expectations when Jokić is their primary defender, and they convert at 65.8% near the rim against him. The metric has its limits — it tracks the nearest defender and ignores help defense and system — but the pattern is not that of a rim protector.
That's why it matters that the Lakers just added Walker Kessler via sign-and-trade: the rim already has a guardian. In this scenario, Jokić wouldn't be coming to defend — he'd be coming to rebound and create.
What we can't say is how much this would be worth in wins: this move isn't in our model and we're not going to manufacture a number. We also don't know what Jokić wants, because he hasn't said anything. We know what the contracts say and what the data says.
What the Lakers gain
- ✓The league's best rebounder for their 27th-ranked spot
- ✓A creator who doesn't take the ball out of Dončić's hands
- ✓Nearly 11 points of differential per 100 possessions with him on the floor
What it doesn't buy
- ✕Rim protection (65.8% opponent conversion rate near the basket)
- ✕Nothing before 2028, and only if Denver stops being Denver
The rumor is smoke until 2028; the fit, however, is real.
Jokić would fill the Lakers' one measurable hole without getting in Dončić's way with the ball. Today, that's not a transaction — it's a date circled on two contracts.
This article was produced with the help of artificial-intelligence tools on verified data from our own database, and was reviewed and edited by a human (Antonio Sierra) before publication.