SportiveWorld's own index
Expected shots
in Europe
In football, expected goals changed how people talk about the game: it is not just how many you score, but how many you should have scored with the chances you had. European basketball did not have it. We have calculated it with 1.37 million shots with coordinates from the EuroLeague, the EuroCup, Liga Endesa, Primera FEB and Liga Femenina.
What each shot is worth
Average points a shot produces from each zone. This is why the corner three is the best deal in basketball: it goes in almost as often as a mid-range shot and is worth one more point.
| Zone | EuroLeague | EuroCup | Liga Endesa | Primera FEB | LF Endesa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 1.4170.5% | 1.3768.6% | 1.3266.2% | 1.3366.6% | 1.2562.5% |
| Paint | 0.8341.3% | 0.8442.2% | 0.7537.6% | 0.8542.5% | 0.8341.4% |
| Mid-range | 0.8039.5% | 0.8039.7% | 0.7638.1% | 0.7838.0% | 0.6933.7% |
| Corner three | 1.2240.7% | 1.1839.4% | 1.0836.2% | 1.1538.6% | 1.0735.7% |
| Three | 1.0735.6% | 1.0535.0% | 1.0133.8% | 1.0435.0% | 0.9632.2% |
| Long range | 0.268.7% | 0.268.7% | 0.268.8% | 0.6120.5% | 0.6521.9% |
Who scores more than they should
Points above (or below) per 100 shots, compared with what an average shot from those same spots produces. Minimum 400 shots.
Those who add the most
+28.8Edy TavaresLiga Endesa881 shots
+27.9D'Or FischerEuroLeague505 shots
+26.4Donta HallEuroLeague723 shots
+26.3Kevin PunterLiga Endesa731 shots
+26.2Jan VeselýLiga Endesa742 shots
+25.5Pierre PelosEuroCup582 shots
+25.5Edy TavaresEuroLeague1,741 shots
+23.0Demond MalletEuroCup401 shots
+22.8Drake DienerEuroCup419 shots
+22.2Axel BouteilleEuroCup1,050 shots
+22.0James AugustineEuroLeague594 shots
+21.8Giorgi ShermadiniLiga Endesa922 shots
Those who add the least
-20.8Cedomir VitkovacEuroCup423 shots
-19.5Carlos SuárezEuroLeague704 shots
-19.2Pero AntićEuroLeague667 shots
-17.3Marcus WilliamsEuroLeague670 shots
-17.2Anton PonkrashovEuroCup522 shots
-17.2DeMarcus NelsonEuroLeague427 shots
-16.8Ray McCallumEuroLeague411 shots
-16.5Mike GreenEuroCup431 shots
How it is calculated and what it does not say
- The court is split into 6 zones by distance to the rim, and we measure, league by league, what percentage goes in from each one. A corner three does not go in the same way in the EuroLeague as in Liga Endesa: mixing them would give a number that describes neither.
- For each player we add up the points an average shooter would produce with HIS shots and compare them with the points he actually scored.
- It does not measure whether a shot was easy or hard: we do not know whether a defender was on him or whether it came from an assist. It measures the spot, not the circumstance. That is why centres who live off dunks rank high: their shots are good and they make them.
- National teams are not included: their source uses a different coordinate system and does not pass the consistency check (at the rim, more than 55% has to go in, and in the published leagues between 62.5% and 70.5% does), so we prefer not to publish a map that lies.