LA @ LV

Los Angeles Sparks · Las Vegas Aces · Wednesday, 23 September 2026 at 04:00

Correct

Preview saved before the gameAs of 23 Sept

What Forecast expects · Favourite

79%LVchance to win

LV · 78.5%21.5% · LA

LV starts with a 78.5% chance to win; LA with 21.5%.
In games: out of 10 like this one, LV would win 8 and LA 2.

Confidence

medium

The model sees a clear favorite.
Research-stage model: shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an advantage.
The model does not know this game's injuries or starting five.

Why

The model looks at only two things: each team's accumulated season strength and home court.
Home court is worth 4.4 probability points to LV.
LV comes in with the stronger accumulated season form: that moves 24.1 points toward LV.

What weighs most

Home court+4.4 toward LV

Season strength+24.1 toward LV

probability points

What could flip it

The model does not read the injury report and has no players inside it: an absence would change the game without changing this number. There is no calculation saying by how much.
What the model does not look at and this number does not capture: rest and travel, the day's injury report, the starting five and recent form.

Uncertainty

The model gives a number, not a band: its reliability is measured by comparing forecasts with results, not by drawing a margin.
It does not know injuries, rest, travel or the starting five: any of them can move this game without the number changing.
For reference, the pre-tip market consensus gave LV 90.6%.

What changed since the last snapshot

2 snapshots sealed before tip-off, from first snapshot (21 Sept) to last before tip-off (23 Sept).
No change for this game: LV stays at 78.5%.
Availability: no injury report → injury report read.
It is a change measured between two snapshots, not an explanation of its cause.

What changed since the last snapshot

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After the game

LV 79%

Expected

LV 89 – LA 79

Actual

0.05

this game's error

Expected: LV at 78.5%.
Actual: LV 89 – LA 79. LV won.
The favorite delivered.
This game's error: 0.05 (0 = nailed it, 1 = worst possible; a 50% call would score 0.25).
The market consensus did get the side right (90.6% on the winner).

Is it calibrated?

games measured

76%

accuracy

0.172

error (Brier)

market 0.169

12 pp

average deviation (ECE)

Over 49 settled games with this model: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172. When it said X%, reality was on average 12 points away from that X%.
On those same games, the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

How it is measured and limits

Model

SportiveWorld's WNBA game model, research stage: it reads each team's accumulated season strength and home-court advantage. Shown as what it said before tip-off, not as an edge.

This is the preview saved before the game, not current data.

Sample · Measured against 49 settled games.

Injuries · Availability known before tip-off: an injury report existed and was read (it does not enter the number).

· What you see is the preview sealed before the game, not a later recalculation.
· 49 games is a small sample: these numbers still move a lot.

As of 23 Sept · SportiveWorld model

Verified against the source · 13/13

✓ expected competition and game
✓ home and away
✓ probability intact
✓ favourite = higher probability
✓ sealed and signed snapshot
✓ registered model
✓ sealed before tip-off
✓ consistent official result
✓ core verified by the server
✓ verified components
✓ numbers add up
✓ freshness without contradiction
✓ consistent track record

← All games with a forecast

This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.