FORECAST · NBA
Players
projected impact with its 80% range and each list's measured accuracy
Season2026-27Update statusNot currentdata as of 20 Sept· last recalculation 20 Sept
Featured rankingseach list with its measured accuracy beside it
TOP
1
Nikola JokićDEN11.062
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC9.863
Victor WembanyamaSAS9.554
Luka DončićLAL7.965
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA6.896
Kawhi LeonardTOR6.677
Tyrese HaliburtonIND5.778
Jalen DurenDET5.409
Cade CunninghamDET4.5510
Donovan MitchellCLE4.3211
Jimmy ButlerGSW4.3112
Jayson TatumBOS4.1113
Tyrese MaxeyPHI4.0614
Chet HolmgrenOKC3.9715
Anthony EdwardsMIN3.95
Nikola JokićDEN11.062Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC9.863Victor WembanyamaSAS9.554Luka DončićLAL7.965Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA6.896Kawhi LeonardTOR6.677Tyrese HaliburtonIND5.778Jalen DurenDET5.409Cade CunninghamDET4.5510Donovan MitchellCLE4.3211Jimmy ButlerGSW4.3112Jayson TatumBOS4.1113Tyrese MaxeyPHI4.0614Chet HolmgrenOKC3.9715Anthony EdwardsMIN3.95RISERS
@20 = 63% (2008-2023, 16/16 > base)
1
Yang HansenPOR+5.902
AJ JohnsonNOP+4.923
Ben SarafBKN+2.504
Rob DillinghamCHI+2.435
Nolan TraoréBKN+2.426
Andre Jackson Jr.s/c+2.337
Sidy CissokoPOR+2.288
Nikola JovićMIA+2.289
Tre JohnsonWAS+2.1010
Jordan HawkinsMEM+2.0811
Cody WilliamsMIN+2.0612
Drake PowellBKN+1.9413
Khris MiddletonWAS+1.8714
Bub CarringtonWAS+1.8415
Cam WhitmoreDEN+1.81
Yang HansenPOR+5.902AJ JohnsonNOP+4.923Ben SarafBKN+2.504Rob DillinghamCHI+2.435Nolan TraoréBKN+2.426Andre Jackson Jr.s/c+2.337Sidy CissokoPOR+2.288Nikola JovićMIA+2.289Tre JohnsonWAS+2.1010Jordan HawkinsMEM+2.0811Cody WilliamsMIN+2.0612Drake PowellBKN+1.9413Khris MiddletonWAS+1.8714Bub CarringtonWAS+1.8415Cam WhitmoreDEN+1.81FALLERS
@10 = 89% · @20 = 83% (2008-2023, 16/16)
1
Javonte GreenDET−2.512
T.J. McConnellIND−2.313
Neemias QuetaBOS−2.274
Paul GeorgeBOS−2.255
Pat ConnaughtonCHA−2.236
Luka GarzaBOS−2.237
Micah PotterPOR−2.168
Jaylen BrownPHI−2.049
Jamal MurrayDEN−1.9410
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL−1.9411Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA−1.9112
Jordan MillerLAC−1.8713
Ron Harper Jr.BOS−1.8514Kawhi LeonardTOR−1.8415
Jordan McLaughlinSAS−1.83
Javonte GreenDET−2.512T.J. McConnellIND−2.313Neemias QuetaBOS−2.274Paul GeorgeBOS−2.255Pat ConnaughtonCHA−2.236Luka GarzaBOS−2.237Micah PotterPOR−2.168Jaylen BrownPHI−2.049Jamal MurrayDEN−1.9410Kevin Porter Jr.MIL−1.9411Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA−1.9112Jordan MillerLAC−1.8713Ron Harper Jr.BOS−1.8514Kawhi LeonardTOR−1.8415Jordan McLaughlinSAS−1.83ROOKIES
R2 pick+age · MAE 2,0 (2008-2024)
1
Darryn PetersonUTA-1.342
Yaxel LendeborgGSW-1.593
Caleb WilsonCHI-1.794
Cameron BoozerMEM-1.905
Mikel Brown Jr.BKN-2.066
Keaton WaglerLAC-2.197
Bennett StirtzOKC-2.198
Tacko FallPHI-2.299
Caleb HomesleyWAS-2.3110
Brayden BurriesMIL-2.3411
Richie SaundersMEM-2.3512
Morez Johnson Jr.DAL-2.3613
Aday MaraOKC-2.3614
Alex MoralesORL-2.3615
Darius Acuff Jr.SAC-2.42
Darryn PetersonUTA-1.342Yaxel LendeborgGSW-1.593Caleb WilsonCHI-1.794Cameron BoozerMEM-1.905Mikel Brown Jr.BKN-2.066Keaton WaglerLAC-2.197Bennett StirtzOKC-2.198Tacko FallPHI-2.299Caleb HomesleyWAS-2.3110Brayden BurriesMIL-2.3411Richie SaundersMEM-2.3512Morez Johnson Jr.DAL-2.3613Aday MaraOKC-2.3614Alex MoralesORL-2.3615Darius Acuff Jr.SAC-2.42MOST UNCERTAIN
1
Mario HezonjaCLE22.42
Olivier SarrCLE17.63
Armoni BrooksBKN17.64
Enrique FreemanMIN16.35
Trey AlexanderUTA16.36
Isaac JonesDET16.37
Trey JemisonTOR16.38
Charles BasseyGSW16.39
Adam FlaglerSAC16.310
Dillon Joness/c16.311
TyTy Washington Jr.LAC15.112
Lonnie Walker IVs/c12.713
Trey LylesMIN10.314
Colin CastletonORL10.315
Zach CollinsCHI10.3
Mario HezonjaCLE22.42Olivier SarrCLE17.63Armoni BrooksBKN17.64Enrique FreemanMIN16.35Trey AlexanderUTA16.36Isaac JonesDET16.37Trey JemisonTOR16.38Charles BasseyGSW16.39Adam FlaglerSAC16.310Dillon Joness/c16.311TyTy Washington Jr.LAC15.112Lonnie Walker IVs/c12.713Trey LylesMIN10.314Colin CastletonORL10.315Zach CollinsCHI10.3Candidates per projection (not an award probability) · 80% range
Track recordHistorical accuracy
67.7 %
right direction
2008-2023
80.2 %
inside the range
2008-2023
63 %
risers
@20 · 2008-2023
89 %
fallers
@10 · 2008-2023
Measured over 16 real seasons (2008-2023, n=5,851): out of every 100 players, 80 finished inside the range we would have given.
What Forecast covers in this competitionevery block declares its state: no empty tabs
Game
Available- Does not read the day's injury report.
- Publishes a point per game, no band: calibration is measured in the track record.
- No resolved games with a sealed pre-game call yet: the prospective record starts with the season.
Season
Available- The seed is an ordering by expected wins, without play-in or tiebreakers.
- Injuries are received but the model does not consume them: they do not move the number.
- The wins interval states in each snapshot which method it is and its measured coverage; the evaluated one (residuals, 80% with ex-post rosters) is served after the re-issue.
Playoffs & title
Not yet modeled- No evaluated model: no probability is claimed.
Players
Available- No projected stat line (points, rebounds, assists).
Awards
Not yet modeled- No model: nothing to claim.
Candidates per projection (not an award probability)
Track record
Available- No resolved games with a sealed pre-game call yet: the prospective record starts with the season.