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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusUpdateddata as of 25 Sept· last recalculation 25 Sept

What do you want to ask

If the minutes change How two players coexist Swapping one of the five The paths that open up

What usually happened to those who made the jump from here?

From which competition?

EuroCup EuroLeague NBA NCAA Division I

What he has been seen doing

Alex Karaban

34.3 minutes per game16.5 · 6.4 · 2.821 games

The jumps measured from here

G League+0.7 minutes per game

655 jumps by 432 players · 2015-2026 · 86 % kept their production

NBA-11.5 minutes per game

510 jumps by 372 players · 2015-2025 · 40 % kept their production

EuroLeague-9.0 minutes per game

62 jumps by 48 players · 2015-2025 · 76 % kept their production

This describes what happened to a group of players who already made that jump. It is not a forecast of anyone's career and must not be read as one.

Measured on 2026-08-27

What this answer does not do

·It describes a group of players; it is not this player's career.
·It does not say where he will go or what numbers he will post.
·Only jumps with enough sample and identity are shown; the rest are not published.

Real cases

Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics goes from 47.81 to 48.49 expected wins (+0.68) if Payton Pritchard plays 34.6 minutes per game.

Δ Expected wins

2026-27 regular season · reference forecast as of 2026-09-25

Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics goes from 47.81 to 44.39 expected wins (-3.42) if Jayson Tatum does not play.

Δ Expected wins

2026-27 regular season · reference forecast as of 2026-09-25

Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards goes from 25.84 to 26.88 expected wins (+1.04) if Trae Young is available.

Δ Expected wins

2026-27 regular season · reference forecast as of 2026-09-25

Reference forecast as of 25 Sept 2026 · Conditional on the model, not causal.