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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusNot currentdata as of 20 Sept· last recalculation 20 Sept
What do you want to ask
If the minutes changeHow two players coexistSwapping one of the fiveThe paths that open up

What was seen when this other player was in that lineup?

Season observed: 2025
Which player do you start from?
Cooper FlaggMax ChristieNaji MarshallP.J. WashingtonZaccharie RisacherSanti AldamaDaniel GaffordKyrie IrvingMorez Johnson Jr.Sergio de LarreaCaleb MartinJett HowardMoussa CisseJohn PoulakidasMarcus SasserVsevolod Ishchenko
What this answer does not do
  • ·It does not estimate what a lineup that never played would have done.
  • ·A gap between two lineups is not the cause of that gap.
  • ·With few possessions it claims no performance: it shows the sample.

2 · Pick a player

Dallas Mavericks projected roster

Dallas Mavericks · expected wins 32.11 · 80 % band 20–44 · seed 12 · Western Conference · Reference forecast as of 20 Sept 2026

Cooper FlaggCooper FlaggF35.0Min/game94 %Availability2,315Season min.+1.38ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Max ChristieMax ChristieG28.9Min/game94 %Availability1,857Season min.-1.59ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Naji MarshallNaji MarshallForward27.9Min/game94 %Availability1,716Season min.-0.82ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
P.J. WashingtonP.J. WashingtonF28.3Min/game94 %Availability1,642Season min.-1.74ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Zaccharie RisacherZaccharie RisacherF24.9Min/game94 %Availability1,479Season min.-1.57ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Santi AldamaSanti AldamaForward-Center27.5Min/game82 %Availability1,302Season min.+1.09ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Daniel GaffordDaniel GaffordForward-Center23.0Min/game82 %Availability1,063Season min.+0.94ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Kyrie IrvingKyrie IrvingGuard26.2Min/game70 %Availability821Season min.+1.04ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Morez Johnson Jr.Morez Johnson Jr.Forward16.7Min/game86 %Availability640Season min.-2.36ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Sergio de LarreaSergio de LarreaG16.4Min/game86 %Availability627Season min.-3.25ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Caleb MartinCaleb MartinForward14.3Min/game82 %Availability609Season min.-4.24ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Jett HowardJett HowardG16.0Min/game67 %Availability575Season min.-3.05ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Moussa CisseMoussa CisseC16.5Min/game67 %Availability536Season min.-2.52ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
John PoulakidasJohn PoulakidasG20.7Min/game49 %Availability458Season min.-3.21ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Marcus SasserMarcus SasserG14.0Min/game67 %Availability437Season min.-1.78ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Vsevolod IshchenkoVsevolod IshchenkoGuard15.6Min/game50 %Availability352Season min.-3.73ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Tobi LawalTobi LawalForward14.3Min/game50 %Availability322Season min.-3.08ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Dereck Lively IIDereck Lively IIC19.7Min/game25 %Availability203Season min.+2.05ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster

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