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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusNot currentdata as of 20 Sept· last recalculation 20 Sept
What do you want to ask
If the minutes changeHow two players coexistSwapping one of the fiveThe paths that open up

What was seen when this other player was in that lineup?

Season observed: 2025
Which player do you start from?
Amen ThompsonJabari Smith Jr.Alperen SengunKevin DurantReed SheppardTari EasonMarcus SmartFred VanVleetClint CapelaSteven AdamsBogdan BogdanovicBruce ThorntonJae'Sean TateIsaiah CrawfordSean Pedulla
What this answer does not do
  • ·It does not estimate what a lineup that never played would have done.
  • ·A gap between two lineups is not the cause of that gap.
  • ·With few possessions it claims no performance: it shows the sample.

2 · Pick a player

Houston Rockets projected roster

Houston Rockets · expected wins 52.61 · 80 % band 41–64 · seed 4 · Western Conference · Reference forecast as of 20 Sept 2026

Amen ThompsonAmen ThompsonG35.5Min/game94 %Availability2,442Season min.+3.55ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr.Forward32.1Min/game94 %Availability2,162Season min.+0.59ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Alperen SengunAlperen SengunC32.3Min/game94 %Availability2,094Season min.+3.30ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Kevin DurantKevin DurantForward32.3Min/game94 %Availability1,950Season min.+3.17ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Reed SheppardReed SheppardG28.0Min/game94 %Availability1,814Season min.+1.52ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Tari EasonTari EasonForward23.5Min/game94 %Availability1,356Season min.+0.52ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Marcus SmartMarcus SmartGuard23.6Min/game94 %Availability1,321Season min.-2.20ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Fred VanVleetFred VanVleetGuard26.4Min/game70 %Availability827Season min.0.00ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Clint CapelaClint CapelaCenter14.8Min/game82 %Availability667Season min.-1.07ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Steven AdamsSteven AdamsCenter19.2Min/game67 %Availability611Season min.-1.60ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Bogdan BogdanovicBogdan BogdanovicG13.7Min/game67 %Availability389Season min.-4.00ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Bruce ThorntonBruce ThorntonGuard13.1Min/game50 %Availability294Season min.-2.78ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Jae'Sean TateJae'Sean TateForward8.3Min/game67 %Availability247Season min.-3.63ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Isaiah CrawfordIsaiah CrawfordF9.6Min/game25 %Availability86Season min.-2.89ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster
Sean PedullaSean PedullaG8.2Min/game25 %Availability67Season min.-3.09ImpactPick−5 min+5 minSits outCertain on roster

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