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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusUpdateddata as of 24 Sept· last recalculation 24 Sept
What do you want to ask
If the minutes changeHow two players coexistSwapping one of the fiveThe paths that open up

What was seen when this other player was in that lineup?

Season observed: 2025
Who comes in for Nick Richards?
Bam AdebayoAndrew WigginsDavion MitchellPelle LarssonGiannis AntetokounmpoTim Hardaway Jr.Bobby PortisBez MbengKlay ThompsonDru SmithNikola JovicSimone FontecchioMyron GardnerRyan Conwell
What this answer does not do
  • ·It does not estimate what a lineup that never played would have done.
  • ·A gap between two lineups is not the cause of that gap.
  • ·With few possessions it claims no performance: it shows the sample.

3 · Set the change

Conditional forecast
Nick Richards

Player reference

Nick Richards

Center · MIA

12.3
min/game if active
67 %
availability
expected games 50.4
409
season minutes
-4.12
projected impact
range -6.82 to -1.42 · confidence medium

Miami Heat · expected wins 36.75 · 80 % band 25–48 · seed 10 · Eastern Conference · Reference forecast as of 24 Sept 2026

-5.0 min-2.5 min+2.5 min+5.0 min

Who gives up (or gets) those minutes? Optional: if you do not say, the team's unallocated pool absorbs the difference.

The engine allocates between 4 and 40 minutes per game; 0–48 is the physical limit. Outside that the scenario is not executed, and says so.

Sits outCertain on roster

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