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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusNot currentdata as of 20 Sept· last recalculation 20 Sept
What do you want to ask
If the minutes changeHow two players coexistSwapping one of the fiveThe paths that open up

What was seen when this other player was in that lineup?

Season observed: 2025
Who comes in for Dru Smith?
Bam AdebayoAndrew WigginsDavion MitchellPelle LarssonGiannis AntetokounmpoTim Hardaway Jr.Bobby PortisKlay ThompsonNikola JovicSimone FontecchioNick RichardsMyron GardnerRyan ConwellKeshad Johnson
What this answer does not do
  • ·It does not estimate what a lineup that never played would have done.
  • ·A gap between two lineups is not the cause of that gap.
  • ·With few possessions it claims no performance: it shows the sample.

3 · Set the change

Conditional forecast
Dru Smith

Player reference

Dru Smith

G · MIA

16.7
min/game if active
82 %
availability
expected games 58.3
789
season minutes
+0.24
projected impact
range -2.46 to +2.94 · confidence medium

Miami Heat · expected wins 38.15 · 80 % band 26–50 · seed 10 · Eastern Conference · Reference forecast as of 19 Sept 2026

-5.0 min-2.5 min+2.5 min+5.0 min

Who gives up (or gets) those minutes? Optional: if you do not say, the team's unallocated pool absorbs the difference.

The engine allocates between 4 and 40 minutes per game; 0–48 is the physical limit. Outside that the scenario is not executed, and says so.

Sits outCertain on roster

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