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FORECAST · NBA

Scenarios

Change one forecast input — a player's minutes or availability — and see what the model expects. Conditional, not causal.

Season2026-27Update statusUpdateddata as of 24 Sept· last recalculation 24 Sept
What do you want to ask
If the minutes changeHow two players coexistSwapping one of the fiveThe paths that open up

What was seen when this other player was in that lineup?

Season observed: 2025
Who comes in for Chet Holmgren?
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderCason WallaceAjay MitchellJalen WilliamsIsaiah HartensteinJaylin WilliamsJared McCainAlex CarusoKenrich WilliamsAday MaraBennett StirtzNikola TopicOtega OwehBrooks Barnhizer
What this answer does not do
  • ·It does not estimate what a lineup that never played would have done.
  • ·A gap between two lineups is not the cause of that gap.
  • ·With few possessions it claims no performance: it shows the sample.

3 · Set the change

Conditional forecast
Chet Holmgren

Player reference

Chet Holmgren

Center-Forward · OKC

31.5
min/game if active
94 %
availability
expected games 66.7
1,954
season minutes
+3.97
projected impact
range +1.89 to +6.05 · confidence high

Oklahoma City Thunder · expected wins 61.50 · 80 % band 50–73 · seed 1 · Western Conference · Reference forecast as of 24 Sept 2026

-5.0 min-2.5 min+2.5 min+5.0 min

Who gives up (or gets) those minutes? Optional: if you do not say, the team's unallocated pool absorbs the difference.

The engine allocates between 4 and 40 minutes per game; 0–48 is the physical limit. Outside that the scenario is not executed, and says so.

Sits outCertain on roster

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