SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 13 April 2019

ORL104–101TOR
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 29 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ TOR winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when ORL does.

Game context

Attendance
19.937
100.7% of capacity
Scotiabank Arena · Toronto
Series
Game 1
First round
TOR 4-1
Scoring
205
combined points
10.4 below the season average (215.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:26.6
Evan Fournier → Pascal Siakam
RLS and RLB show Fournier (ORL) clamps Siakam's (TOR) arm during the rebound.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:20.2
Pascal Siakam → Magic
Siakam (TOR) is in the paint without actively guarding an opponent for longer than three seconds.