Win probability changed during the game. · 9 December 2019
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Griffin · Brown · Drummond · Galloway · Maker
Closing lineup · NOP
Ingram · Redick · Hayes · Ball · Hart
Blake Griffin
34′ · +2
Bruce Brown
26′ · -2
Luke Kennard
25′ · +4
Andre Drummond
25′ · +2
Tony Snell
24′ · -3
Langston Galloway
21′ · +8
Derrick Rose
28′ · +2
Christian Wood
15′ · +2
Svi Mykhailiuk
20′ · -3
Markieff Morris
19′ · -1
Thon Maker
3′ · -1
Brandon Ingram
37′ · -2
Jrue Holiday
35′ · -1
Kenrich Williams
32′ · -2
Jahlil Okafor
22′ · 0
JJ Redick
21′ · -2
Jaxson Hayes
21′ · -6
Lonzo Ball
30′ · -3
Josh Hart
30′ · +6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
6′ · -4
Nicolo Melli
5′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Kennard, Brown, Griffin, Drummond, and Snell played 13.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, Mykhailiuk, Rose, Morris, and Galloway played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wood, Brown, Mykhailiuk, Rose, and Griffin played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Okafor, Ingram, Williams, Redick, and Holiday played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okafor, Ingram, Ball, Hart, and Holiday played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Okafor, Ball, Hart, Williams, and Holiday played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Maker, Mykhailiuk, Rose, Morris, and Galloway played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Griffin, Morris, Snell, and Galloway played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Brown, Rose, Griffin, and Drummond played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wood, Mykhailiuk, Rose, Griffin, and Galloway played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Rose, Griffin, Drummond, and Galloway played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Wood, Kennard, Mykhailiuk, Rose, and Morris played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Mykhailiuk, Griffin, Morris, and Snell played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Kennard, Rose, Griffin, Drummond, and Snell played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Williams, and Hayes played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Williams, Hayes, Redick, and Holiday played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Hart, Williams, Melli, and Redick played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Ball, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker, and Holiday played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Hayes, and Holiday played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Ball, Williams, Hayes, and Redick played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Ingram, Williams, Melli, Redick, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Ball, Hart, Hayes, and Alexander-Walker played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okafor, Ball, Hart, Alexander-Walker, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

