Win probability changed during the game. · 14 December 2019
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Aldridge · DeRozan · Murray · Mills · Poeltl
Closing lineup · PHX
Oubre · Rubio · Bridges · Johnson · Baynes
LaMarcus Aldridge
37′ · -9
DeMar DeRozan
34′ · -6
Dejounte Murray
31′ · -9
Trey Lyles
17′ · -7
Bryn Forbes
16′ · -8
Patty Mills
32′ · +4
Derrick White
22′ · +9
Rudy Gay
32′ · +12
Jakob Poeltl
16′ · +11
Lonnie Walker IV
21′ · +1
Marco Belinelli
8′ · +12
Kelly Oubre Jr.
41′ · +9
Dario Saric
38′ · +3
Ricky Rubio
37′ · +8
Mikal Bridges
32′ · -1
Frank Kaminsky
32′ · +11
Cameron Johnson
33′ · -7
Aron Baynes
21′ · -13
Elie Okobo
16′ · -10
Tyler Johnson
16′ · -10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Lyles, Murray, Forbes, Aldridge, and DeRozan played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Aldridge, Gay, DeRozan, and Mills played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poeltl, White, Walker, Gay, and Mills played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Phoenix Suns
Oubre, Kaminsky, Bridges, Rubio, and Saric played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Kaminsky, Bridges, Johnson, and Rubio played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Johnson, Rubio, Baynes, and Saric played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
White, Aldridge, Gay, DeRozan, and Mills played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
White, Walker, Aldridge, Gay, and Mills played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Poeltl, Walker, Gay, Belinelli, and Mills played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Lyles, White, Aldridge, DeRozan, and Mills played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Forbes, Walker, and Gay played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, White, Aldridge, Belinelli, and DeRozan played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Gay, and Belinelli played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
White, Walker, Aldridge, DeRozan, and Mills played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Poeltl, Walker, Belinelli, and DeRozan played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Phoenix Suns
Oubre, Kaminsky, Johnson, Rubio, and Saric played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okobo, Johnson, Baynes, Saric, and Johnson played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bridges, Okobo, Johnson, Baynes, and Johnson played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kaminsky, Bridges, Okobo, Johnson, and Johnson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Okobo, Baynes, Saric, and Johnson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Okobo, Baynes, Saric, and Johnson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Oubre, Bridges, Johnson, Rubio, and Baynes played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Kaminsky, Okobo, Saric, and Johnson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
⚠️ Optical tracking did not capture every player in this game.
