Win probability changed during the game. · 18 December 2019
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
LaVine · Carter · Satoransky · Arcidiacono · Harrison
Closing lineup · WAS
Beal · Bertans · Thomas · Pasečņiks · Smith
Zach LaVine
44′ · +9
Wendell Carter Jr.
39′ · +3
Lauri Markkanen
37′ · +17
Kris Dunn
35′ · +4
Tomas Satoransky
34′ · +6
Thaddeus Young
20′ · -12
Coby White
18′ · -9
Daniel Gafford
11′ · -6
Denzel Valentine
8′ · -6
Ryan Arcidiacono
14′ · -2
Shaquille Harrison
6′ · +1
Bradley Beal
41′ · -11
Davis Bertans
37′ · -6
Isaiah Thomas
31′ · -4
Ian Mahinmi
24′ · -14
Isaac Bonga
20′ · -16
Anžejs Pasečņiks
28′ · +15
Ish Smith
33′ · +13
Troy Brown Jr.
22′ · +5
Admiral Schofield
18′ · +3
Garrison Mathews
12′ · +10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Dunn, Markkanen, Carter, Satoransky, and LaVine played 25.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Dunn, Arcidiacono, Markkanen, Carter, and LaVine played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Harrison, Markkanen, White, Young, and LaVine played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Washington Wizards
Mahinmi, Bonga, Bertans, Thomas, and Beal played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 16 points.
Pasečņiks, Brown, Schofield, Mathews, and Smith played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Mahinmi, Smith, Bertans, Thomas, and Beal played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Valentine, Arcidiacono, Carter, White, and Young played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Valentine, Arcidiacono, White, Gafford, and Young played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dunn, White, Gafford, Young, and LaVine played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Harrison, Markkanen, Carter, Satoransky, and LaVine played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
White, Gafford, Young, Satoransky, and LaVine played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Valentine, Carter, White, Young, and Satoransky played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Arcidiacono, Markkanen, Carter, Satoransky, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Valentine, Arcidiacono, Carter, Young, and Satoransky played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Washington Wizards
Pasečņiks, Bonga, Bertans, Thomas, and Beal played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Pasečņiks, Brown, Schofield, Smith, and Beal played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Pasečņiks, Smith, Bertans, Thomas, and Beal played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Pasečņiks, Brown, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mahinmi, Brown, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Schofield, Smith, Bertans, Thomas, and Beal played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mahinmi, Brown, Schofield, Mathews, and Smith played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Mahinmi, Brown, Mathews, Smith, and Bertans played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

